Elon heads for the exit

Earlier this week, Elon Musk announced that his “scheduled time as a Special Government Employee” is coming to an end.

The announcement was welcome news to Musk’s critics, who accuse the world’s richest man of haphazardly gutting federal agencies and cruelly cutting aid to the world’s poorest children.

But the news is sure to disappoint Musk’s supporters, who saw his tenure at D.O.G.E. as a bold campaign to eliminate government waste and a valiant effort to cut aid to the world’s poorest children.

Whether you’re a Musk fan, a Musk foe, or just someone who reads newsletters while pretending to work, let’s take a look at what the markets say about Elon’s time at D.O.G.E. and what awaits him as he returns to the private sector.

Click here to trade on Elon's exit from D.O.G.E. and related markets.

This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.

“This will be his last day, but not really, because he will always be with us, helping all the way.”

That might sound like a quote from a children’s cartoon, because it is.

But it’s also a quote from the President of the United States announcing Elon Musk's departure. 

President Trump and Musk will hold a press conference later today, presumably to tout Elon’s accomplishments. With that in mind, here’s what Kalshi’s markets say about Musk’s D.O.G.E. tenure.

According to the New York Times, D.O.G.E. has cut over 58,000 jobs so far, along with over 76,000 job buyouts. The Times also reports nearly 150,000 more cuts are planned. That would come out to roughly 284,000 jobs eliminated.

That said, overall, Kalshi traders are somewhat less optimistic. Our current market forecast sees only 194,000 job cuts by the end of the year. But that’s still nearly double the projected total when Trump took office, which shows Elon outperformed our market’s expectations. And there’s currently a nearly 30% chance that the 250,000 mark will be reached by year’s end, so that forecast could certainly move higher later in the year.

The veracity of D.O.G.E.’s cuts is disputed by many. But keep in mind, this market is specifically about what the agency will claim to have saved taxpayers. 

According to The Hill, the agency currently claims $175 billion has been cut so far in 2025. And our market forecast currently projects that number will rise to $536 billion by the end of the year.

But even if those numbers are accurate, and $536 billion is certainly nothing to sneeze at, it’s still a far cry from the trillions Elon initially projected. 

After we opened our “Trump and Elon spending cuts” market earlier this year, the odds of $1 trillion in savings reached as high as 20%*. But once Trump’s second term got underway, and reality set in, the odds dropped like a rock. Our market is now forecasting no cuts in 2025, and our traders actually predict an increase in spending of over $400 billion.

*It actually spiked as high as 59% on January 2, but the price quickly corrected.

But in all fairness to Elon, it takes two to tango. Even if D.O.G.E.’s numbers were 100% accurate, there’s not much he can do if Trump and Congress decide to pass a bill that cuts taxes and adds spending.

Elon himself recently said as much to CBS News, claiming Trump’s congressional spending bill “can be big or it can be beautiful,” but not both.

Which explains, in part, why Elon is headed for the door. When Washington has made you the poster child for government spending cuts, and markets are forecasting the national debt to reach 46.1 trillion by the end of Trump’s term, that’s a no-win situation.

The other problem with being the poster child for government spending cuts is that, generally speaking, people hate spending cuts, even if they’re necessary. In fact, the only thing people hate more than spending cuts is the person they view as responsible for making the cuts.

Having huge swaths of the general public hate your guts is bad for politicians, which is why they are so reluctant to do it. It’s even worse for business owners who want the general public to buy their products, or at the very least, not light their products on fire.

According to The Hill, Musk’s net favorability rating is down 14.4 percent since Inauguration Day, and Tesla’s stock has dropped by 14.5 percent (although it’s up 28 percent since Election Day).

Can Elon right the ship at Tesla?

As of May 29th, Kalshi traders were forecasting 359,000 Tesla deliveries for the second quarter of 2025. That's up slightly from last quarter's abysmal showing of 336,681, but down significantly from Q2 of 2024, when the company delivered 444,000. Traders also forecast Tesla's Q2 vehicle production to be 399,000, as opposed to 410,000 in the same quarter of 2024.

So what, if anything, can help improve Elon's image as well as sales?

As always, it's time for Elon to lean into the wunderwaffen!

Last year, when Tesla's stock price was sinking, Elon Musk made numerous predictions during his Q1 earnings call. This included self-driving robotaxis as early as August of 2024.

Tesla's stock price ended up rebounding nicely. But we're still waiting on the robotaxis. That said, Kalshi traders are optimistic that they will soon become a reality, and price the chances of a 2025 release at 80%.

Will the release go as planned? Many have their doubts. But time will tell.

Chances of Tesla launching "unsupervised" full self-driving capability sometime in 2025 are also hovering around 80%, which makes sense, considering the company would need it in order to drive its robotaxis.

During that same 2024 earnings call, Elon also predicted the release of the Optimus humanoid robot as early as late 2025. In all fairness, Elon specifically said that this was just a guess. And that's a good thing since our traders price the chances of it happening before 2027 at just 43%.

That said, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently claimed Optimus could be the first humanoid robot to reach mass adoption in what is "likely to be the next multi-trillion dollar industry." And when you're talking about trillions of dollars, being a year or two off probably isn't that big of a deal, assuming you're still the first.

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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.