With the SpaceX IPO likely to take place as early as Friday, Kalshi traders overwhelmingly expect Elon Musk to become the world's first trillionaire. Kalshi’s market on the matter prices his chances of reaching the milestone at 96%.
Musk is followed by NVIDIA President and CEO Jensen Huang, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, both with chances of 2%.
When will it happen?
Traders are also forecasting when Musk will achieve his trillionaire status. The market shows it’ll happen before 2029 at 96%, before 2028 at 92%, and before the end of the year at 89%.
Musk’s net worth?
Traders are also speculating on how much Musk will be worth once he hits the trillionaire mark. The market shows a forecast of $1.34 trillion by the end of the year.
Traders price Musk being worth more than $1.2 trillion at 66%, more than $1.3 trillion at 47%, and more than $1.4 trillion at 32%.
How will Musk become a trillionaire?
Musk’s space travel company SpaceX is poised to go public on Friday. NBC News reported that the new IPO will attract many buyers “because of the company’s success in rockets and satellite-based internet – two areas where SpaceX has a wide lead over potential competitors.”
It’s also expected to become the biggest public offering in history, “surpassing the debut of Saudi Aramco. In 2019, the Middle Eastern oil company raised $29.4 billion from investors in its IPO.”
CNN reported that SpaceX is expected to be valued at $1.77 trillion in total. Musk “already owns $273 billion in stock and options thanks to his role as Tesla CEO. But if the initial public offering of SpaceX – his rocket and artificial intelligence company – goes as planned, he could soon be worth an additional $841 billion…All told, that $1.11 trillion for Musk from just his two public companies.”
Why is SpaceX worth so much?
SpaceX is considered the world’s most successful private space exploration and the world’s largest satellite communications company, partly because of the government contracts it has secured. It’s even bigger now that Musk’s AI company is part of the picture.
Fortune reported that SpaceX achieved its success because it’s “responsible for sending payloads into orbit for customers across the globe, but has also benefited from big taxpayer spending.
The company earned $6 billion in contracts from government agencies like NASA and the Defense Department.
“That has raised conflicts of interest issues given that Musk was the biggest donor to President Donald Trump’s campaign and is still a big backer.”
Whether those expectations prove accurate or not, Kalshi traders currently see Musk as the overwhelming favorite to become the world's first trillionaire and potentially reach the milestone within the next few years.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Musk becoming the first trillionaire: 96%
How rich Musk will get before 2027: $1.34 trillion
Musk becoming a trillionaire before 2027: 89%
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
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