9.8.25
Kalshi traders quickly adjusted their positions Monday after new Epstein documents were released to Congress, pushing odds higher that more files could surface in the months ahead.
Markets on whether Trump will release any Epstein-related files before December 2026 climbed to 56%, up five points on the day. A separate market on whether the House will pass a bill to release the files this year jumped to 42%, an 18-point gain in recent sessions. Meanwhile, odds that Ghislaine Maxwell will testify before Congress this year remain stuck at just 10%.
The moves followed a Wall Street Journal report that lawyers for Jeffrey Epstein’s estate had turned over a “birthday book” compiled for his 50th birthday in 2003. The volume contained dozens of letters from Epstein’s associates, including a page bearing Donald Trump’s signature, a document the president has said did not exist.
8.9.25
The Journal reported that Trump’s entry appeared on a page framed by the outline of a nude woman. The typewritten text ended with the line: “Happy Birthday - and may every day be another wonderful secret.” A squiggly “Donald” was drawn below the waist, mimicking pubic hair. Trump has denied authoring the page, calling it “a fake thing,” and previously filed a defamation suit against the Journal, its reporters, and parent company Dow Jones.
House Oversight Committee Democrats quickly published the page, saying it showed Trump misled the public. “President Trump called the Epstein investigation a hoax and claimed that his birthday note didn’t exist. Now we know that Donald Trump was lying,” Rep. Robert Garcia (D., Calif.), the panel’s ranking member, said in a statement.
A White House official disputed the authenticity of the signature. In a letter accompanying the production, attorneys for the estate said they had redacted the names and faces of women and minors to protect potential victims, and would make the originals available to committee members for private review.
According to the Journal, Trump was listed under the “Friends” section of the book’s table of contents, alongside former President Bill Clinton, financier Leon Black, and others. Some contributions were routine well-wishes; others carried sexual references or suggestive images. Maxwell, Epstein’s longtime associate now serving a 20-year prison sentence, told Justice Department officials she assembled the book but did not recall the names of those who contributed.
The Hill confirmed the estate had complied with a subpoena issued by Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.), who last month requested Epstein’s will, flight logs, contact books, and the birthday book. The estate said it does not possess the original “Black Book,” which may have been seized by the FBI in 2019. The Justice Department has said there is no “client list.”
The latest disclosures are the most significant batch of Epstein-related records since his death in 2019. For traders, the release has sharpened the debate over whether Trump, Congress, or the courts will eventually bring more material into public view, and whether the odds currently priced in are still too low.
Sources: Wall Street Journal (Sept. 8, 2025); The Hill (Sept. 8, 2025).
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