Prediction markets are reacting sharply to an impending House vote that could force the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Kalshi traders now assign a 58% chance that the House will pass a bill this year requiring the Justice Department to disclose its unclassified records on Epstein and his associates.
The move follows an NBC report that the Epstein Files Transparency Act, sponsored by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), has reached the crucial 218-signature threshold needed to bypass House leadership and trigger a floor vote.
Freshman Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who will be sworn in Wednesday afternoon, is expected to provide the decisive signature after a weeks-long delay during the government shutdown.
If enacted, the bill would require the Justice Department to release all unclassified materials related to Epstein and his co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell, while allowing limited redactions to protect victims and classified information. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has criticized the plan as “reckless,” warning that it could expose personal details of victims, but bipartisan support appears to be growing.
Market reaction to new emails
The latest price jump followed the release of previously unseen emails obtained by The New York Times, in which Epstein claimed that Donald Trump had “spent hours at my house” with one of his victims and “knew about the girls.” House Democrats on the Oversight Committee said the messages came from materials provided by Epstein’s estate. The White House called the allegations a “Democrat Epstein Hoax,” but traders viewed the disclosures as intensifying pressure on both Congress and the administration.
A related Kalshi market, Who will vote for releasing the Epstein files?, shows Massie, Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) all near 75% as expected yes votes. Establishment Republicans such as Johnson, Jim Jordan, and Steve Scalise are priced below 10%, underscoring the political divide over the measure.
The road ahead
Under House rules, seven legislative days must pass after a discharge petition reaches 218 signatures before a vote can take place, positioning the measure for potential consideration before Thanksgiving. Even if it clears the House, passage in the Republican-controlled Senate remains uncertain. Still, traders appear to be pricing in a genuine shift toward disclosure, suggesting that the political momentum behind transparency is now difficult to ignore.
A side market on names
Another Kalshi contract, Who will be named in the Epstein files released this year?, has drawn nearly $1 million in volume. Traders currently rank Joe Biden (37%) and Barack Obama (35%) at the top, followed by Stephen Hawking (27%), Tom Hanks (20%), and Martha Stewart (19%).
The market reflects speculation about which names could appear if records are made public and should not be viewed as evidence of wrongdoing.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
House passes Epstein transparency bill in 2025: 58%
Top projected yes votes: Massie, Pressley, Ocasio-Cortez, Greene
Most speculated names if files released: Biden, Obama, Hawking
Traders appear to see the long-running Epstein investigation entering a new, politically charged stage, with Congress, the White House, and public pressure all converging toward disclosure. For now, the markets suggest the momentum is on the side of transparency.
Sources: NBC News, Nov. 12, 2025; The New York Times, Nov. 12, 2025.
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