Ethereum continued its recent surge into Friday morning, jumping more than 5% in the last 24 hours to change hands above $2,500.
That brings its monthly gain to more than 35% according to data from CoinGecko, outpacing Bitcoin, which has gained nearly 27% over the same time period.
On the heels of the rally, Kalshi traders now make the odds of Ethereum reaching at least $2,750 during September 42%, up from below 30% when the rally started on Thursday. Larger gains, like a move to more than $3,000 before the end of the month are up as well, now priced at 18%.
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The second largest crypto asset by market cap has been gaining steam all month as investors pile back into spot Ethereum exchange traded funds. Over the course of the last nine trading days, ETH ETFs have gained more than $1 billion in net inflows, according to data from CoinGlass. During that streak, ETFs experienced outflows just one time when $48.2 million exited funds on September 2.
In addition to the recent run for ETFs, top Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies made a major vote of confidence for the asset earlier this week. The firm added more than $133 million worth of ETH based on current prices, its largest purchase since June according to a report from CoinDesk.
In a statement this week the firm’s chairman Tom Lee said he expects institutions will add to their crypto holdings as the year progresses, potentially adding another catalyst for ETH.
“We believe there are multiple positive catalysts as we head into the final months of 2026," said Lee, noting the upcoming CLARITY Act vote, and a belief that the four-year cycle is ending soon.
Kalshi traders are less confident that the CLARITY Act will provide an end of year catalyst though, pricing odds of it becoming law before January 1, 2027 at just 19% at the time of writing. Odds for an even sooner passage, like before November 1 or December 1, are even lower, currently trading at 7% and 14%, respectively.
Ethereum’s end of year forecast is improving
Despite low odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law anytime soon, Kalshi traders see an improved end of year forecast for Ethereum.
Traders now price chances of ETH moving above $3,500 at 30%, double the probability the event had at this time last month. Meanwhile, odds of a reclamation of $4,000 stand at 17%, up from 6% in early August.
While the asset currently trades around 50% off its all-time high of $4,946 from last August, traders are not completely ruling out a move of that magnitude. ETH would need to jump nearly 99% to reach that all-time high marker, a feat that traders assign around a 12% probability of taking place throughout the duration of the year.
As for whether it may finish the year there, that’s a different story. Cumulative odds for the ranges of $4,500 or more stand at just 4.7% as of Thursday afternoon.
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