Falcons vs. Dolphins odds: Atlanta favored as Tua Tagovailoa returns to Miami

The Atlanta Falcons close out the preseason on the road against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, with kickoff set for 7:00 p.m. ET on Friday. Kalshi traders have Atlanta at 67% and Miami at 34%, as of this writing.

Atlanta enters 1-1 in the preseason after losing to Denver 27-7 and beating Indianapolis 34-6. Miami is 0-2 after losses to Washington 20-7 and the Giants 26-3. Both teams face the mandatory cutdown to 53 players on Aug. 30.

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According to Kalshi's 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings, Atlanta enters as the No. 24 team in the league while Miami ranks 31st, one of the largest gaps between opponents on this week's preseason slate.

Head coach Kevin Stefanski confirmed Tua Tagovailoa will start at his former home stadium, with backup Michael Penix Jr. not playing. Atlanta's Week 1 starting job remains open, and Stefanski has said he isn't sure when he'll name one.

Miami is expected to lean on backups after resting the bulk of its roster all summer. ESPN's Week 2 coverage noted Miami's reserves failed to make an impact through two preseason games.

Tagovailoa's performance carries extra weight: a strong outing against his former team could bolster his case over Penix, while a repeat of his uneven summer would leave the door open.

Miami released Tagovailoa this offseason, absorbing an NFL-record $99.2 million in dead money, making Friday's homecoming a natural storyline regardless of the final score.

For Miami, the game is purely about developmental evaluation. The Dolphins are the youngest team in the NFL, and their inability to generate offense with backup units has been a consistent theme through two lopsided preseason losses.

Kalshi traders have Atlanta winning by more than 4.5 points at 51%, as of this writing.

Kalshi traders have the total priced at over 34.5 points at 54%, as of this writing.

Kalshi traders have the Miami Dolphins at 3% to win the AFC East, as of this writing, trailing division leader Buffalo at 56%.

Kalshi traders have the Atlanta Falcons at less than 1% to win the Pro Football Champion market, as of this writing.

Kalshi markets now predict:

When is Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins? Friday, Aug. 28, 2026, at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Where is the game? Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
How can I watch? NFL Network.
What is Kalshi traders' current number? Atlanta 67%, Miami 34%, as of this writing.

Atlanta enters as a heavy favorite in a game defined by Tua Tagovailoa's return to Miami and what his performance means for Atlanta's unresolved Week 1 quarterback decision.

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