Tonight, October 22, is the second and last NYC Mayoral debate of the general election. Three candidates will return to the stage: the Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, the Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, and former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running for mayor as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani back in June.
Mamdani entered the last debate, on October 16, in a strong position. After incumbent mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race in September, Mamdani had been polling in the mid-40s, Cuomo in the low to mid-30s, and Sliwa in the mid-teens, and his chances of winning in November hovered around 87%.
Before the debate, I wrote that Cuomo needed something big to change the narrative of the race, and that he would likely go after Mamdani in the debate. While Cuomo tried, he was largely unable to pin Mamdani down or force a gaffe, and instead spent much of the night facing questions about his own record, including controversies involving sexual harassment scandals and nursing home deaths during Covid.
I also mentioned it was worth watching to see if Sliwa would team up with Cuomo to attack Mamdani or if he would insist he was staying in the race and present himself as a viable third candidate.
As it turned out, Sliwa took the latter approach. In fact, many of Sliwa’s most viral moments were attacking Cuomo, not Mamdani. One viral clip showed Sliwa berating Cuomo for losing the Democratic primary and accusing him of not understand the meaning of “no” (a clear reference to the harassment accusations that ended his governorship), to which Mamdani replied that he agreed with Sliwa. After the debate, despite increasing pressure from GOP politicians and Bill Ackman, Sliwa repeatedly and vehemently stated his intent was to remain in the race until the end.
Given that Sliwa leaving the race is likely the only development now that could shift the race overnight significantly in Cuomo’s favor, markets became even more bullish on Mamdani after the debate as it became clear Sliwa was not about to drop out. Now, Mamdani sits north of a 90% chance to win, and Cuomo slipped to under 10%. The message from traders is clear: this race is Mamdani’s to lose.
Tonight’s debate is likely a last stand of sorts for the anti-Mamdani forces. Early voting in NYC starts on Saturday, after which the impact of Sliwa dropping out becomes less and less important as ballots are already cast for him. If Cuomo wants to convince voters that he would make a better mayor, this is the last chance he will have to make his case, and the case against Mamdani, in front of what will likely be a large audience. Given this, we can probably expect even more pointed attacks on Mamdani and a hunt for viral moments from all three candidates as they seek to dominate social media feeds in the home stretch.
But make no mistake, a repeat of last week’s debate performance will likely only move the election further into Mamdani’s corner in the markets. With time running out before Election Day, Mamdani’s opponents need to drastically change up tactics or combine forces if they want to prevent him from taking City Hall. But if the status quo continues, Kalshi’s markets seem to think that this race might already over.
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