Last night’s final New York City mayoral debate was much more heated than the previous one, as all three candidates sought to make their cases before early voting starts this Saturday. Part of this was undoubtedly because there was a live audience, which cheered, booed, and reacted audibly to the candidates’ responses and attack lines—a very different environment from the stolid atmosphere of an empty newsroom studio, as was the case in the first debate.
At times, the high-octane brawl featured some notable zingers, including a memorable moment when Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa said that Mamdani’s résumé could “fit on a cocktail napkin,” while Cuomo’s failures “could fill a public school library in New York City.”
But for all the sound and fury onstage, markets did not react strongly in the aftermath of the debate. Mamdani’s odds to win ticked upward from 91% to 92%, while Cuomo’s dipped from 9% to 8%, and Sliwa’s chances remained under 1%.
One factor in this is undoubtedly the length of time until voting starts—as more early votes are banked, the impact of new developments in the race is diminished, leaving little room to fundamentally change the trajectory of the election.
At the end of the day, Mamdani still holds a double-digit lead in the latest polling, and nothing we saw in either debate suggests that Sliwa is remotely considering dropping out; that is likely one of the only circumstances in which Cuomo could catch Mamdani in these final two weeks.
There was, however, another interesting development the day after the debate. Despite denouncing Cuomo as a “liar” and a “snake” in previous press conferences, current NYC mayor Eric Adams, who dropped out of the race in September, announced that he was endorsing Cuomo for mayor at a press conference Thursday.
Looking back, those who watched the debate might have been able to see this coming. When each candidate was asked if they would accept Adams’ endorsement, only Andrew Cuomo gave an emphatic “yes.” Mamdani said “no,” while Sliwa opined that Adams should be locked up for corruption. That certainly may have made Adams’ decision easier.
While largely symbolic, the endorsement’s actual impact remains unclear. Adams had been polling in the single digits prior to dropping out, and some recent polling suggested that most of his support had already been transferred to Cuomo. If nothing else, it may prompt a renewed round of clamoring for Sliwa to leave the race—pleas that have not gone over well thus far with the beret-wearing, cat-loving maverick.
As the end of the roller-coaster election for the mayor of America’s largest city draws near, traders increasingly believe that after spending the campaign as an underdog, this race is now Mamdani’s to lose.
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