On Monday, the odds of Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner dropping out of the race spiked dramatically. The odds that Platner withdraws by next Tuesday currently stand at 91%. Monday is the final day he can withdraw and be replaced by another Democrat. His chances of remaining the Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 31 have fallen to just 7%.
DROP OUT MARKET
The current frontrunner to receive the Democratic nomination is Troy Jackson, former president of the Maine State Senate. Jackson was in contention to win the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary last month before being defeated by Hannah Pingree. During his gubernatorial campaign, Jackson picked up several high-profile Democratic endorsements, including Rep. Ro Khanna and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Jackson currently has a 52% chance of being the Maine Democratic nominee on July 31.
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Behind Jackson are fellow former Maine Democratic gubernatorial candidates Sheena Bellows and Nirav Shah. Bellows campaigned alongside Jackson during the governor's race under Maine's ranked-choice voting system for gubernatorial primaries. Bellows, the current Maine Secretary of State, has a 21% chance of being the Maine Democratic nominee on July 31.
Shah, the former director of the Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention, led Maine's response to the COVID-19 pandemic before taking a role with the CDC at the national level during the Biden administration. Shah narrowly trails Bellows with an 18% chance of being the Maine Democratic nominee on July 31.
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