Darline Graham Nordone remains the favorite to win the Republican nomination for her late brother Lindsey Graham's Senate seat, but her chances dropped following her first debate appearance.

Graham's price on Kalshi's South Carolina special Republican Senate primary market fell to 68%, while Rep. Ralph Norman rose to 32%.

What caused the drop in Graham’s price? 

Nordone and Norman recently faced off in their first debate ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary runoff, and Nordone stumbled on a national security question just one week before voters return to the polls. Nordone and Norman's runoff election is scheduled for Tuesday.

The State's Lucy Valeski reported that Nordone responded to a question about national security with a jarring answer that got an audible reaction from the crowd. The moment also went viral on social media.

“I’m not that informed on national security…but I do support the military,” Nordone said.

Norman seized on the moment after the debate and criticized Nordone for her lack of knowledge on the subject.

“By her choice, she’s running for the United State Senate,” Norman said. “It’s a six-year term. You need to get fully versed in what issues you’re going to be dealing with.”

Nordone tried to course-correct later in the debate by saying she was “concerned about troops on the ground” in response to a question about Israel and the U.S.’s relationship.

“I am a little concerned about troops on the ground,” Nordone said. “I don’t know that that’s necessary just yet. I would like to make sure that we try all economic solutions before we put troops on the ground.”

NBC News reported that Graham also emphasized her support for President Donald Trump's handling of the war in Iran.

“I fully trust President Trump when it comes to the war in Iran,” Nordone said. “Iran is the weakest they have been in 47 years. The one thing that concerns me is we cannot let them get a nuclear weapon. So I trust President Trump and everything he’s doing. I think he’s got this, and I trust him on it.”

More flubs

Nordone’s national security flub wasn’t her only mistake during the debate. She also misstated the population of South Carolina during an answer about the economy. She said South Carolina had “50 million people,” although the state's population is approximately 5.6 million.

Norman also sought to portray Nordone as a Washington insider because of her late brother's long tenure in the Senate.

“Washington is with her,” Norman said. “They’re not with me, nor do I want them. I’ve never been subservient to anything in Washington. Washington is broken.”

Nordone defended herself by mentioning Norman’s failed campaign for governor and his calls to go to Washington and “clean up the swamp.”

“You wanted to come back to South Carolina to run for governor, now you want to go back to Washington again to clean up the swamp,” Nordone said. “So what is it you want to do?”

The takeaway:

Kalshi markets now predict:

  • Graham-Nordone winning the special primary: 68%

  • Norman winning the special primary: 32%

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