Congress is facing a packed September agenda as lawmakers work to avoid a government shutdown while Republicans also try to advance another reconciliation package.
Kalshi traders are skeptical that the reconciliation measure will move quickly. The market gives the House a 23% chance of passing another reconciliation bill before January, 22% before December and 9% before November.
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Where does the bill stand?
Lawmakers will return from their August recess facing a crowded September agenda that includes government funding and another potential reconciliation package.
The Hill’s Sudiksha Kochi reported that the House passed a budget resolution last month that lays the groundwork for another reconciliation package involving defense, agriculture and election-related measures. But the Senate has yet to approve the same budget framework, creating uncertainty about whether Republicans can complete the process before the midterm elections.
“The lower chamber returns next week, only to leave Washington again the week after, while the upper chamber isn’t slated to return until Sept. 14,” Kochi reported. “That leaves Republicans in the House and Senate with roughly three weeks to work on their top priorities before leaving for another monthlong recess in October.”
Republicans are facing pressure to complete their legislative agenda while also avoiding a government shutdown just weeks before the midterm elections.
“I’m not sure much gets done in September in Congress,” Rep. Andy Harris said in a Fox News interview. “The Senate left town before passing the reconciliation bill. That was the big thing that needed to be done: make sure that we replenish our munitions, and they abandoned town. I just don’t think much gets done before the election.”
The only measure Congress is expected to pass is a continuing resolution to keep the government open and operating.
“The House passed a CR last month that would fund the government at existing levels through Dec. 4,” Kochi reported. “The Senate in early August passed its own version of a CR that would fund the government through Dec. 11, sending it to the House.”
Even a continuing resolution has some complications attached to it. The Senate’s version contains “a provision to temporarily halt a rule from the White House budget office that would give political appointees in the executive branch more authority over dispersing federal grants – a provision that some Republicans in the lower chamber may not favor.”
However, Rep. Randy Fine told Kochi that he’s “very confident” the House will pass the continuing resolution before the Sept. 30 deadline.
“So while they’re not the same, the fact that they have interest in doing it and we have interest in doing it, makes me optimistic we’ll get something over the finish line,” Fine said.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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