The tide may be turning in the push for congressional redistricting in Indiana. Our market forecast still predicts that the maps will not be redrawn, but the odds are nearing a coinflip.
The reason for the shift is Indiana Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray’s (pictured above) reversal on reconvening the Senate. The chamber will now meet again on Dec. 8 to discuss a “final decision” on redrawing its district lines.
Bray’s announcement drove up the price of a possible congressional boundary redraw before the 2026 election from 26.3 cents to 45 cents in a matter of hours.
Back to the redrawing board
Bray made his announcement after House Speaker Todd Huston said in a statement that House Republicans will “gavel in on Monday, Dec. 1,” to take up legislative business, “including redrawing the state’s congressional map.”
President Donald Trump has been putting pressure on several state legislatures to redraw their district maps before the 2026 midterms. Indiana Gov. Mike Braun added to the president’s call for a redistricting session by echoing a promise to “recruit, endorse and finance primary challengers” against Indiana leaders who wouldn’t take up the issue.
Earlier this month, Bray made it very clear that senators would not return to the chamber in December to take up the redistricting issue. He said in a statement that “there are not enough votes to move that idea forward.”
Turning up the pressure
The pressure on lawmakers to redraw Indiana’s maps isn’t just coming from Republican leaders. There have been other, more concerning sources. At least eight Indiana Republican leaders reported receiving bomb threats and intimidating messages targeting their businesses, offices, and even their families over the issue.
President Trump called out Sen. Greg Goode on a Truth Social post for not backing his redistricting plans. Just a few hours after the president posted his statement, Goode’s home was targeted in a terrifying form of intimidation known as “swatting,” in which false reports of crime and violence are made that prompt police departments and sheriff’s offices to send SWAT teams to raid a person’s home or business.
The FBI and Indiana State Police are currently investigating the threats and swatting calls.
Midterm outlook
The Democratic wave of wins on Nov. 4 started to raise some alarms among Republicans, causing Trump and other Republican leaders to push states to redraw districts ahead of their usual schedules. Right now, traders price the Democrats’ chances of retaking the House at 73%, and forecast that Republicans will end up with just 211 seats, well shy of the 218 needed for a simple majority.
So far, Texas and Missouri have responded to the president’s demand with new congressional maps. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito granted a request from the state to temporarily stop a lower court ruling that would have forced it to go back to its 2021 map while the court considers the case. Missouri’s new map is also making its way through the court system.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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