Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek remain locked in a competitive Iowa Senate race, with Kalshi traders and recent polling showing different leaders.
The market for the Iowa Senate winner shows Hinson leading with a 56% chance of victory, followed by Turek at 44%.
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What do the polls say?
Newsweek reported that the latest YouGov poll shows Turek leading Hinson 47% to 46%, with 4% of voters still undecided.
The survey's breakdown of respondents' presidential voting history suggests Turek may be attracting support from some voters who previously backed Trump.
“According to the poll, 41% of respondents backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, compared with 52 percent who voted for Trump,” Newsweek reported. “Given Turek’s current edge, the results suggest he has won support from at least some voters who previously cast ballots for Trump. The margin of error was 3.1 percent.”
The final Senate debate
Hinson and Turek clashed over energy prices, foreign policy and taxes during their second and final debate last Tuesday, Oct. 14, at WHO 13's studios in Des Moines.
The Hill reported that Hinson broke with the Trump administration’s policies and stances on several issues, most notably with the war in Iran and President Donald Trump’s deal with Russia over diesel reserves.
“We need to lower gas prices in this country,” Hinson said. “We need to lower diesel prices, but I don’t think we need to be making a deal with Russia to do it.”
Turek agreed with Hinson's opposition to Russian diesel imports but criticized her votes against congressional efforts to restrict Trump's military actions in Iran.
“We are in this situation because of this unnecessary war in Iran that Ashley Hinson voted in favor of continuing seven times,” Turek said. “This has led to gas prices going up in Iowa more than almost any other state.”
NewsNation also reported that the two clashed over taxes. Hinson criticized Turek’s legislative record, accusing him of voting to make it easier for Iowa lawmakers to raise taxes.
“He voted to make it easier for politicians to raise your taxes here in Iowa,” Hinson said. “When he is showing up to vote, it’s wrong for Iowa. He’s too liberal for this state.”
Turek countered, “That is absolutely, fundamentally incorrect. Actually, in the Iowa Legislature, I voted with Republicans to reduce people’s taxes.”
Turek also vowed to strengthen border security, even if it meant crossing party lines.
“I believe that we need to have safe and secure borders, and I will ensure that every Iowan and every American has safe and secure borders and safe communities, and I’m willing to work with anyone, including President Trump, on this issue,” Turek said.
“You trash the president during the primary, and now you’re doing ads saying you’re gonna work with him,” Hinson said. “It’s a tale of two Tureks.”
Which party will win the Senate?
While Kalshi’s Iowa Senate market puts Hinson at 56%, its separate Senate control market shows Democrats at 64% and Republicans at 37%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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