Markets forecast a Khamenei exit before 2027

Iran’s streets are filling with anti-government protests as the country faces rampant inflation and economic woes. While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vows not to relinquish his position, Kalshi markets indicate he is more likely than not to step down in 2026. Currently, there is a 56% chance Ali Khamenei will be out of power before July, and a 64% chance he’ll be gone by September.

If Khamenei does step down, Iran’s Assembly of Experts would appoint his successor. Traders believe his son Mojtaba Khamenei is the most likely candidate. The market puts Mojtaba Khamenei’s chances of becoming the next Supreme Leader at 18%. However, traders think there is a 56% chance that the position of Supreme Leader will be abolished altogether.

A third market shows another small possibility for Iran’s future leadership. Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the last Shah of Iran, has been one of the key opposition figures in the recent Iranian protests. A market questioning whether the U.S. will recognize Pahlavi as the leader of Iran currently sits at 37%.

According to the BBC, Pahlavi has presented himself as “a figurehead for national reconciliation,” calling for Iranians to take their protests to the streets in order to move towards the establishment of “free elections, the rule of law and equal rights for women,” and decide if they want to return to a constitutional monarchy or a republic.

Pahlavi hasn’t received any formal endorsement from President Trump, but according to The Guardian, he’s scheduled to speak at an event at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday. The British newspaper also suggests the Trump administration has been cautious in its public posture, a stance some analysts interpret as keeping options open.

So far, at least 62 people have been killed in Iranian protests calling for a regime change, including 48 protestors and 14 security personnel, according to the Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA).

Khamenei has blamed the protests on President Trump and vowed to “not back down.” Meanwhile, Trump has warned of potential military action if violence continues, saying the U.S. would respond by “hitting them very, very hard where it hurts,” according to The Independent.

Khamenei and his government have also been taking steps to curb the protests. The NetBlocks monitoring organization reported on Thursday that Iran experienced a nationwide Internet blackout following a series of escalating digital censorship measures aimed at silencing or weakening the protests. The group wrote on Mastodon that the digital shutdowns were an attempt to “severely limit coverage of events on the ground as protests spread.”

Taken together, the markets suggest traders see rising instability in Iran’s leadership, but are far less certain about what, or who, might come next.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

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