Is Marjorie Taylor Greene running for President?

Marjorie Taylor Greene’s abrupt decision to resign from Congress has set off a wave of speculation about her next move. Within hours, prediction markets began shifting in ways that suggest traders see her departure not as an exit from politics but as a strategic repositioning toward a broader stage.

Greene announced her resignation in a video posted on X following a public feud with former President Donald Trump. Coverage from BBC described the move as an unexpected break between two longtime allies. Reports from CNBC and Reuters detailed the escalating clash over Greene’s support for releasing Justice Department files related to Jeffrey Epstein, a measure Trump initially opposed before eventually signing.

The sharpest reaction came from the Kalshi market tracking who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. Greene’s line jumped to 62 percent, one of the highest readings since the market opened.

The surge suggests traders view Greene’s resignation as a pivot point that may free her from a narrowing political lane in the House and open the door to a national campaign.

Another closely watched market offers a broader look at Greene’s position inside the 2028 field. In the contract tracking who will become the Republican nominee, she remains far behind the current frontrunner. J. D. Vance leads at 51 percent, with Marco Rubio at 8 percent and Donald Trump at 5 percent.

Greene also sits at 5 percent in this market, a reminder that traders still see her as a long shot for the nomination even as they increasingly expect her to enter the race. Her rise in the run market reflects growing expectations about her intentions, but the nominee market shows she would face a steep climb against candidates who hold far stronger positions with GOP voters and donors.

A second market tracking whether Greene will be the Republican nominee for the Georgia Senate seat also moved higher. The contract climbed to 23 cents, up 13, after her announcement. BBC reporting has noted that Greene has expressed interest in statewide office, including a Senate run.

Another market that may help explain her decision shows Democrats at 73 percent to win the House in 2026, far ahead of Republicans at 27 percent. The trend has been steady all year. If Greene expected the House to flip, her resignation may be part of a strategic shift away from a narrowing minority and toward a wider political stage.

Greene was once considered one of Trump’s most durable supporters. Her departure from Congress underscores a deeper shift within the Republican Party and inside the MAGA movement. Rather than waiting for a Trump-backed primary challenger in her district, she may be repositioning toward a race with higher visibility and broader influence.

The markets reflect this. Traders have quickly priced in the idea that Greene’s resignation is not a retreat. Instead, it signals a new phase in her political trajectory, whether in Georgia statewide races or on the national stage.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

The moves suggest traders interpret Greene’s exit from Congress as a strategic shift that may set the stage for a larger bid. Her break with Trump has created political uncertainty, but the markets are signaling that Greene’s next chapter may be even more ambitious than the one she is leaving behind.

Sources: BBC, Nov. 21, 2025; CNBC, Nov. 21, 2025; Reuters, Nov. 21, 2025.
Image Source: Marjorie Taylor Greene

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