Markets eye presidential ambitions after Trump-Greene rift

For most of the Trump era, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) was one of Donald Trump’s most visible allies. She appeared at rallies, championed his agenda on television, and became a symbol of the MAGA movement inside Congress. Her notoriety, however, predated her time in office: in 2018, she drew national scrutiny for a Facebook post invoking Jewish space lasers, and in 2022, she attended AFPAC, hosted by far-right activist Nick Fuentes, an appearance GOP leaders condemned. Still, Greene remained firmly in Trump’s orbit, and through 2023 she was considered one of his most reliable congressional defenders.

Her profile surged further during President Biden’s 2024 State of the Union address, where she repeatedly interrupted the president, reinforcing her image as Trump’s most confrontational ally in the chamber.

But over the past year, Greene’s political trajectory, and relationship with Trump, has shifted dramatically.

What began as disagreement over Trump’s advisors soon erupted into a full-blown public feud. Greene suggested Trump was being led astray by establishment strategists, while Trump used Truth Social to criticize her in unusually sharp terms, accusing her of disloyalty and erratic behavior, calling her “Wacky”, which culminated in him "withdrawing his support and Endorsement of her.” The intensity of the backlash led Greene to say she was concerned about her safety, pointing to the online hostility that followed each new Trump attack.

The break was especially striking given how close the two once were.

Before the feud emerged, Greene began taking positions that diverged from both GOP leadership and the MAGA base.

Greene questioned U.S. military aid packages and aspects of Israeli strategy, a shift that put her at odds with longstanding Republican foreign-policy orthodoxy.

During the recent government shutdown, Greene backed keeping key Affordable Care Act subsidies, arguing that cutting them would hurt working-class Americans already struggling with higher costs. The stance surprised colleagues familiar with her earlier rhetoric.

Her clearest break came when she joined Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) in supporting a discharge petition to force a House vote on releasing additional Epstein-related documents. Trump urged Republicans to oppose the effort, calling it a distraction. Greene not only disagreed — she became one of its loudest advocates.

At that point, her ideological distance from Trump was undeniable.

Following the feud and policy shifts, Greene made a surprising media turn.

On ABC’s The View, Greene told the panel she was willing to “work with anyone” to help Americans and described her break with Trump as a “difference in direction.” Hosts who once criticized her offered unusually warm responses — a reception conservative commentators called “fawning.”

On CNN’s State of the Union with Dana Bash, she said Republicans needed to “think differently” about voter outreach and criticized the party’s “obsession with fighting instead of governing.” Bash described her tone as “striking.”

The shift reinforced the idea that Greene was broadening her political identity.

With Greene’s ideological pivot intensifying, traders are now pricing whether she might leave the Republican Party altogether.

A Greene departure would invert a moment Trump frequently highlights: in 2019, he celebrated when Rep. Jeff Van Drew (NJ) switched parties to join the GOP. If Greene left, it would represent the opposite dynamic — a high-profile defection away from Trump’s party in his second term.

Party switching is uncommon but often has substantial political consequences.

With today’s razor-thin House majority, a Greene exit would almost certainly shift leadership dynamics and committee power.

However, there is also recent reporting that suggests Greene may be positioning herself for a 2028 presidential run, especially as she distances herself from Trump and expands her media presence.

If Greene leaves the GOP, the nominee market would change dramatically — but the run-for-president market becomes even more relevant, and traders are already positioning for that possibility.

Marjorie Taylor Greene’s shift from Trump’s most visible defender to one of his loudest critics has created a political scenario few imagined even a year ago. Her ideological pivots, media reinvention, and escalating feud with Trump have introduced significant uncertainty about her future, and Kalshi markets have responded quickly.

Whether she stays in the GOP, departs the party, or prepares for a 2028 run, Greene is keeping the political world guessing. And in a moment defined by unpredictability, markets remain the clearest real-time gauge of what might come next.

Follow Benjamin Freeman on X: @BenwFreeman1
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

Image Source

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}