Is Trump in trouble?

Two scandals involving billionaires are consuming the current news cycle. Surprisingly, neither directly involves Elon.

One involves a dead sex criminal. The other involves a Coldplay concert.

Both of those topics are disturbing in their own right. But so far, only the Epstein scandal has ensnared the President of the United States. So we'll focus on that one.

As we mentioned earlier this week, President Trump is facing a wave of criticism over the government's failure to release the Epstein Files. But what makes this different is the fact that Trump's own supporters are the loudest critics.

Will any of this matter? Is Trump in trouble?

Let's take a look at what Kalshi's markets are saying.

(Click here for all our Epstein scandal markets, and here for our Coldplay concert scandal market).

Opinion, not financial advice. These views are the author's, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade.

While Trump's projected approval rating for the week of July 25th took a major dip earlier in the week, it has since rebounded. Our trader forecast now indicates the President will end the next week with a rating of 45.8%. That's down from a high of 50.5% in January, but still off his low of 45.1% following the tariff drama in April.

This week, Trump's impeachment odds rose as high as 49%, which would seem remarkably high if we were living in the year 2015 or earlier. But we're not.

Here in 2025, this doesn't even come close to the market's April of 55%. In fact, back in June, before the latest Epstein drama unfolded, his odds of being impeached were at 50%. So Trump's chances of being impeached have less to do with Epstein, and more to do with the Democrats' chances of retaking Congress.

If there's one thing that does spell trouble for Trump at the moment, it's the fact that the Democrats currently have a 70% chance of retaking the House in the 2026 midterms.

That said, the Democrats' chances probably have more to do with the fact that the Republicans have a very narrow majority, and the incumbent party usually loses seats, than it does with the Epstein scandal. In fact, the Democrats' odds have slightly decreased over the past few weeks.

While Republican midterm prospects in the House are looking dim, they certainly see a bright spot in the Senate. Democrats would have to flip four seats to regain control. But 21 of the 22 Republican Senate seats that are up for grabs in 2026 are in states that Trump won. And two of the 13 seats that the Democrats are defending are also in states that the President carried. In other words, the Democrats may need more than a blue wave to retake the upper chamber. Maybe a blue tsunami.

That's why the Republicans' odds are still at 70%, despite the scandal (although there has been a slight dip).

Even if the Democrats do retake the Senate, they would still need to rely on Republican help to reach the 67 votes required to remove Trump from office.

And thus far, there is no indication that the Epstein drama is peeling off Republican support. The current odds for any Republican member of Congress calling for Trump's impeachment are just 15%.

Obviously, this is a very fluid situation. And it's entirely possible that the scandal will continue to snowball, or a new revelation will dramatically change the landscape.

But in regard to the question of whether or not Trump is in trouble, our markets seem to think the answer is "no," at least for now.

Then again, you should have guessed that from the question mark in the headline...

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realOldTerryFollow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.