The Jaguars visit the Bengals on Sunday, Oct. 4, at 1 p.m. ET at Paycor Stadium. Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow meet for the fourth time as pros, renewing a rivalry that goes back to the 2020 national championship game, which Burrow won. Lawrence is still looking for his first win over Cincinnati. Kalshi traders have the Bengals at 57% to win.
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Who is favored to win the Jaguars vs. Bengals Week 4 game?
The Jaguars are 2-1 after losing at Denver in Week 2 and beating New England 35-6 last week, when Lawrence threw three touchdowns. Lawrence has seven touchdown passes in two home games this season, and the run game has climbed to 10th in the league at 119.3 yards per game after ranking 20th last year. As of this writing, defensive tackle Albert Regis (elbow), Chris Braswell (knee) and cornerback Montaric Brown (hamstring) are questionable.
Zac Taylor is back for an eighth season, and the Bengals opened 2-0 before a 30-27 loss at Pittsburgh in Week 3 that ended on a late Burrow fumble. Burrow threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns in that game, with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins each catching a touchdown. As of this writing, wide receiver Colbie Young (knee) and safety Kyle Dugger (quad) are out, with guard Dalton Risner (knee), defensive tackle B.J. Hill (Achilles), linebacker Swayze Bozeman (groin) and safety Bryan Cook (ankle) questionable.
Kalshi power rankings
The Jaguars enter as the No. 5 team in the league with a Power Score of 74.4 and a 70% playoff qualification price, while the Bengals rank ninth with a Power Score of 65.5 and a 75% playoff price, a four-spot gap heading into Cincinnati. Jacksonville has climbed six spots over the past week. See the full 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Bengals at 57% to win and the Jaguars at 43%, a slight edge for the home team in a matchup of two AFC teams with playoff aspirations.
What is the point spread for Jaguars vs. Bengals in Week 4?
Kalshi traders have the Bengals winning by more than 2.5 points at 51% as of this writing.
What is the projected point total?
Kalshi traders have the over on 51.5 total points at 51% as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline in the Jaguars vs. Bengals Week 4 game?
Lawrence has never beaten Cincinnati. The Bengals are 3-0 against him, and all three games were decided in the final 18 seconds or in overtime, including a 31-27 Cincinnati win in Week 2 last season. Lawrence said this week the matchup is on his mind, and it doubles as a rematch of the national championship game that ended the 2019 college season, which Burrow's LSU team won over Lawrence's Clemson.
What are the Jaguars' and Bengals' expectations for the 2026 season?
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars are defending AFC South champions and lead the division again after three weeks. Kalshi traders have Jacksonville at 70% to make the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati is trying to end a three-year playoff drought with Burrow, Chase and Higgins still in place. Kalshi traders have the Bengals at 75% to make the playoffs.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have the Bengals at 57% to win, a narrow edge in a game between two AFC contenders. Whether Lawrence can finally get past Cincinnati, and whether the Jaguars can solve a team that has beaten them four straight times, is the swing factor. Kalshi's prices for Jaguars vs. Bengals will keep moving as kickoff approaches.
What are the score predictions for Jaguars vs. Bengals? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the over on 51.5 total points at 51%.
What is the spread for Jaguars vs. Bengals? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Bengals winning by more than 2.5 points at 51%.
Who is favored to win, Jaguars or Bengals? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Bengals at 57% to win.
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