The Jets visit the Bears on Sunday, Oct. 4, at 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field. Kalshi traders have the Bears at 64% to win, even with Caleb Williams ruled out and Chicago keeping its starting quarterback a secret until kickoff.
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Who is favored to win the Jets vs. Bears Week 4 game?
Smith has been sharp in Aaron Glenn's second season, leading the league with a 75.5% completion rate and throwing four touchdowns without an interception. The Jets are 1-2 after a Week 1 win over Tennessee and close losses to Green Bay and Detroit, the last a 31-24 defeat. As of this writing, running back Breece Hall (quad), wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (finger), tight end Mason Taylor (thumb), guard Dylan Parham (knee) and linebacker Francisco Mauigoa (quad) are out, while safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is set to return.
The Bears are 2-1 and lead the league in rushing at 184.3 yards per game. Williams has a Grade 2 hamstring strain from Week 2, and Case Keenum started in his place Monday night in a 27-7 win over the Eagles. As of this writing, Williams is out along with offensive lineman Braxton Jones (knee), defensive lineman Shemar Turner (knee), linebacker Noah Sewell (Achilles) and defensive back Kyler Gordon (calf), and Johnson has not said whether Keenum or Tyson Bagent will start.
Kalshi power rankings
The Bears enter as the No. 11 team in the league with a Power Score of 62.3 and a 53% playoff qualification price, while the Jets rank 27th with a Power Score of 20.9 and a 15% playoff price, a 16-spot gap heading into Sunday. See the full 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Bears at 64% to win and the Jets at 37%. Chicago is favored at home despite the quarterback uncertainty, with its running game carrying much of the load.
What is the point spread for Jets vs. Bears in Week 4?
Kalshi traders have the Bears winning by more than 3.5 points at 50% as of this writing.
What is the projected point total?
Kalshi traders have the over on 42.5 total points at 52% as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline in the Jets vs. Bears Week 4 game?
Chicago's quarterback choice is the open question. Keenum made his first start in 1,009 days on Monday and helped hold Philadelphia to 248 total yards in a 27-7 win, while Bagent is back after clearing concussion protocol. Johnson said only that the decision has been made, and he spent three seasons as Detroit's offensive coordinator while Glenn ran the Lions' defense, so both staffs know each other well.
What are the Jets' and Bears' expectations for the 2026 season?
New York Jets: The Jets are trying to build on a 3-14 season with a veteran quarterback who has played well through three weeks. Kalshi traders have New York at 15% to make the playoffs.
Chicago Bears: Chicago is chasing a second straight NFC North title and needs to stay afloat until Williams returns from a hamstring strain expected to cost three to four weeks. Kalshi traders have the Bears at 53% to make the playoffs.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have the Bears at 64% to win, backing Chicago's ground game and home field over the Jets' hot start from Smith. Which quarterback Johnson sends out, and how he handles a Jets defense that knows his offense, is the swing factor. Kalshi's prices for Jets vs. Bears will keep moving as kickoff approaches.
What are the score predictions for Jets vs. Bears? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the over on 42.5 total points at 52%.
What is the spread for Jets vs. Bears? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Bears winning by more than 3.5 points at 50%.
Who is favored to win, Jets or Bears? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Bears at 64% to win.
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