Help step-President Elect, I'm stuck!
Just a few days ago, things were going so well for Mike Johnson. Despite all the turbulence of 2024, he’d managed to weather the storm and was poised to be reelected as Speaker of the House during Trump's second term.
All that remained was to pass a short-term funding bill to keep the government funded past the December 20th deadline. After that, he’d be free to head home for the holidays and enjoy some much-needed quality time with his family while monitoring their internet browsing history for signs of pornography.
But as with all aspects of modern life, social media ruined everything.
This is an opinion, not financial advice. The views expressed are those of the author, who uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on the platform.
As some Republican lawmakers began to grumble about the size and scope of Johnson’s continuing resolution, Elon Musk took to X to amplify their concerns. On December 18th, he spent most of the day lambasting the bill, labeling it “criminal.”
After Elon’s outburst, former and future President Donald Trump was forced to wade in, and threatened to primary any Republican who voted for it. But in a bizarre twist, he also demanded Congress raise the debt ceiling, or do away with it entirely.
So basically, Johnson had to come up with a Plan B that appeals to Republicans who are worried about the debt, but also weakens or eliminates debt limitations going forward—a near-impossible task.
As you might expect, this “Plan B” bill went down in flames, and we’re less than 24 hours from the shutdown deadline. Can Johnson come up with a Plan C in time?
Despite hitting 1% multiple times this week, the odds of a shutdown in 2024 have now risen to 64%. That’s a problem not only for the country, but for Johnson.
Since the election, his chances of being reelected Speaker hovered between 90% and 95%. But now, thanks to the short-term funding debacle, his odds have plummeted, reaching a low of 58% before rebounding to the mid 60s.
In an ironic twist, some Republicans, including Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, have floated Elon Musk as a possible challenger to Johnson, since the Speaker of the House does not have to be a member of Congress.
That said, Kalshi traders currently put the odds of a Musk speakership at just 4%. Of course, they put the odds of a shutdown at just 1% earlier this week, so obviously the situation is very fluid.
And as Elon himself is fond of saying, the most entertaining outcome is the most likely.
Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.