Yesterday, the President of the United States threatened to unleash the newly renamed Department of War on the City of Chicago.

Watching the commander-in-chief threaten to invade the nation’s third-largest city does raise a few questions, the most important of which is: Are you ready for some football?

I hope so, because it’s time for Kalshi’s 2025 football preview.

(Click here to see all our pro football markets.)

Look, I know your inbox is being inundated with football tips, and previews, and strategy guides, most of which you are sending straight to the trash. And for good reason.

They’re trash!

After all, if I really knew who was going to win the AFC North, or the NFC West, or any game at all, do you think I’d tell you?

Those who can, do. Those who can’t, write newsletters.

But here’s the thing: I’m not asking you to listen to football forecasts from a weirdo like me. I’m just showing you the consensus forecast from thousands of weirdos across the country, each of whom brings their own data points to the table.

Because all of those data points combined tend to paint a more accurate picture than the opinions of so-called experts. Think of it as the wisdom of weirdos, or something like that.

Hey, that sounds like a pretty good book title.

At any rate, here’s a look at what Kalshi traders are forecasting for this season.

Note: I can’t use actual pro football images, so here’s some AI slop of Pete Hegseth vomiting at various sports bars. If this upsets you, click here to read our College Football preview, which features pictures of former President Joe Biden in a diaper, instead.

The AFC North is arguably the toughest in the conference, and Kalshi traders see Baltimore as the clear favorite with a 59% chance to win the title.

Meanwhile, traders price Cincinnati’s chances of taking home the title at around one in four, while Pittsburgh remains in the hunt at 14%.

Last but not least is Cleveland, who currently boasts a 2% chance of winning the AFC North, which seems a little high (not trading advice).

Our traders currently think there’s a 54% chance Houston does not take home the AFC South title. But that still gives them a 46% chance of winning, which is enough to make them favorites in what is perhaps the weakest division in the league.

And considering their competition is Jacksonville (25%), Indianapolis (20%), and Tennessee (11%), it’s not hard to understand why. Headed into Week 1, not one of these teams is ranked in the top 20, so the fact that Houston’s chances are still below 50% isn’t exactly a vote of confidence.

Speaking of pitiful divisions, the AFC East is shaping up to be a real trash heap. Both Miami and New England are expected to struggle, while the New York (J) are expected to be near the bottom of the league.

That said, if the AFC East is a landfill, then Buffalo is the hard drive with a bitcoin wallet that was accidentally tossed out. The team is widely considered to be a contender to win it all, and Kalshi traders price their chances of winning the division at 74%.

If I had published this article on Friday, it would have shown Kansas City with a 53% chance of winning the AFC West. But luckily, I was on a bender, so it got delayed.

After Friday night’s loss in Brazil, their chances have dropped to 38%, while Denver (24%) and Los Angeles (31%) are both in striking distance.

Then there’s Las Vegas. Their billionaire owner rocks a bowl cut and, until recently, drove a 1997 Dodge Caravan. On the one hand, you gotta respect him for not giving a f***. On the other hand, not giving a f*** has resulted in only one division title since 2002.

Every summer, I ask my brother-in-law how Chicago is looking this year. And every year, he says they have a real shot at making the playoffs. And then they play their first game, and you can watch the hope completely fade from his eyes before halftime.

It’s great. And this year will probably be no different.

But in all fairness, it might not be because Chicago is awful. After all, their chances of winning the division are 14%, which isn’t great, but it’s not Cleveland-level terrible.

It has more to do with the fact that this year the NFC North is arguably the toughest division in the league. Green Bay (35%), Detroit (34%), and Minnesota (20%) are all legitimate playoff contenders (or so it seems).

So while it will probably still end in heartache for Chicago, at least my in-laws can pretend there’s hope until a little later in the season. Unless they cancel the season and turn Soldier Field into a giant deportation processing center.

If the NFC North is looking hot, it’s safe to say the NFC South is not. As with their counterparts in the AFC, this division is probably the worst in the National conference.

That said, Tampa Bay’s offense is supposedly shaping up to be a potential threat, which explains why their chances of winning are just under 50%.

Next in line is Atlanta, who managed to crack the top 20 power rankings heading into Week 1, and currently have a 30% chance of winning the South. Then again, the other two teams in the league are Carolina (17%) and New Orleans (5%), so take Atlanta’s chances with a grain of salt.

Philadelphia managed to win it all last year. And with most of their offense returning this season, many analysts are expecting a repeat. But before they can win it all, they have to win the NFC East (or at least a wild card spot). And at the moment, things are looking good.

Philly currently has a nearly 60% chance to win the East. Their only real competition looks to be Washington. Traders price their chances at around 30%.

Meanwhile, Dallas’ chances fell to 8% after Thursday’s opening game loss. And traders think New York (G) has only a 6% chance of winning the title, because they are New York.

So far, only two games have been played, so obviously, anything can happen. But at this point, the NFC West doesn’t seem to have any standout teams. What it does have is four decent teams that are very evenly matched.

San Francisco’s chances are currently priced at 38%, while Los Angeles (R) is priced at 30%. Meanwhile, Arizona and Seattle round out the division with chances of 19% and 13%, respectively.

Enough about the divisions. How will the conferences shake out?

On the American side, traders think it’s a three-way race, with Buffalo, Baltimore, and KC each with about a 20% chance of taking home the title.

There’s also a 37% chance that another AFC team brings home the title. Cincinnati (9%), Denver (7%), and Houston (7%) are the next most likely.

In the NFC, traders like Philly’s chances of pulling a repeat. Their odds of winning are currently at 21%.

Of course, that means there’s a 79% chance that they won’t win. Leaving Detroit (13%), Green Bay (13%), and San Fran (10%) as the next most likely to win, followed by Los Angeles (R) (9%) and Washington (9%).

Last but not least, what team do Kalshi traders think will win it all?

Currently, Buffalo and Baltimore both top the list at 13%, followed by Philadelphia (12%) and Kansas City (11%). That adds up to a 49% chance that one of these four teams will take home the trophy.

That leaves a 51% chance for the rest of the field, so a dark horse champion is still very much in the cards.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}