Kalshi's 2025 college football preview

On Saturday, our long national nightmare will finally come to an end as football returns for the 2025-2026 season.

Yes, it's only college football. And yes, it's only "Week Zero" games (more like "Weak Zero," amiright?). But watching Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky is still better than being forced to sit through KPop Demon Hunters for the seventh f**king time, so I'm stoked.

(Click here to trade on all of this weekend's college games, including point spreads and score totals. And click here for games from week 1.)

Now, I stressed that this is only college football. But did you know there are some people who actually like college better than pro? It's true!

These poor souls are usually confined to undesirable hellholes that can't support a professional franchise, like Iowa or Hawaii. But for those of us in sophisticated urban centers, like Indianapolis or Jacksonville, college will always play second fiddle.

That said, I'll do my best to put my pro-football bias aside and give you the best damn college football preview that a prediction market newsletter writer (with access to several LLMs) has ever written.

With that in mind, here's a look at what our traders think is in store this season.

^{This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Founded in 1896, the Big 10 is the oldest college football conference and is arguably the most dominant (assuming the person making that argument has been in a Myanmar prison camp since the year 2000).

For most of its existence, it consisted of 10 primarily Midwestern teams (hence the name). But in 1990, the powers that be took one look at the Penn State program, along with its assistant coach Jerry Sandusky, and said, “Yeah, let’s bring them on board. What’s the worst that could happen?”

Since then, the conference has continued to expand and now boasts 18 teams. But only about six of those teams are worth boasting about. That said, while the Big 10 has certainly been diluted overall, its top-tier programs are still among the best in college football and are perennial contenders for the championship.

This year, Kalshi traders currently price Ohio State as the favorite, with a 30% chance to win the conference. That said, Penn State (28%) has nearly the same odds of winning, and Oregon (20%) is within striking distance.

As for the other 15 teams in the conference, there is only a combined 22% chance that one of them will win the title. And eight of those teams have odds below 1%. So if you think this is Northwestern's year, now's your chance! (Not trading advice. Seriously. Don't blame me if you do that.)

If the Big 10 isn't quite the powerhouse it used to be, that's because of the Southeastern Conference. Better known as the SEC, it's been around since late 1932 when a group of teams broke away from the Southern Conference.

Through a mix of hard work, determination, and good old-fashioned southern grit (and some real sleazy boosters), the SEC became a college football powerhouse around the turn of the century, and hasn't looked back.

Currently, nine of its 16 teams are ranked in the AP's top 25, including No. 1-ranked Texas. So it's no surprise that our traders currently give Texas a 24% chance of winning the conference. Georgia (20%), Alabama (15%), and LSU (12%) are also within striking distance for the title.

I could make a lot more jokes about the SEC. A LOT more. But I've got a good thing going here, and I'm not going out like Jimmy the Greek*.

^{*I'm not even old enough to get that joke.}

So let's just say this conference is the one that's most likely to be negatively impacted by the unfolding tragedy that is the Cracker Barrel logo change. I just hope they can stay focused on the game during these trying times.

Like the SEC, the ACC was formed by teams breaking away from the Southern Conference, only 20 years later (1953). Think of it as the SEC's less attractive sister. Or brother. Or whatever you're into. OK, sorry I brought it up. Let's just drop it.

The ACC may live in the shadow of the SEC, but it still puts out some tough teams, and currently boasts five teams in the Top 25. Of course, there are twelve other teams in the conference, so like the Big 10, it's top-heavy.

Speaking of top-heavy, traders currently give Clemson a whopping 50% chance to win the conference this year, followed by Miami at a distant 20%.

The Big 12 was formed in 1996. So I'm not going to pretend to give a sh** about its rich and storied history. Earlier in the week, I literally wore a t-shirt older than this conference.

Since Texas and Oklahoma jumped ship for the SEC in 2024, the conference has lost a lot of its luster. But that doesn't mean it isn't home to some exciting football. It currently has four teams in the Top 25.

Besides, everything is exciting when you're trading on it. And traders currently have Texas Tech as the favorite at 17%, with Kansas State (14%), Arizona State (14%) and Utah (12%) all close behind.

Conference titles are nice and all, but who is positioned to win it all?

Currently, SEC conference favorite Texas is priced at 16%. Georgia (9%), Alabama (10%) and LSU (6%) are also in contention.

But the Big Ten is still looking strong, with Penn State (14%) and Ohio State (12%) priced as the second and third most likely to take home the title. Oregon also has a 7% chance.

From the ACC, Clemson and Miami have cracked our top 10 at 9% and 3%, respectively. And traders give conference-less Notre Dame a 7% chance.

As for the Big 12, they didn't crack the top ten with Kalshi traders, but Texas Tech is currently priced as the 16th most likely to win it all with a 2% chance, so there's that.

Last but not least, who will win the Heisman Trophy? I'm still not sure if I'm allowed to use player names, so just click here and see for yourself. Although based on the name, it looks like the favorite might be related to America's sweetheart Chelsea Manning!

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}