Kalshi Traders Vs. Oscar Experts

The Hollywood award season is entering the home stretch, and the Oscars are less than two weeks away. And while last weekend’s SAG awards had a few surprises, Oppenheimer has cemented its position as the film to beat at the Academy Awards, at least among Kalshi traders. But how do our traders compare to critics and film industry experts who have made their own predictions about this year’s Oscar race? For comparison, let’s take a look at GoldDerby.com, a well-known entertainment industry website that pools award predictions from leading experts at 25 movie news and Hollywood trade publications: Variety, Deadline, and Entertainment Weekly, among many others. How do our traders’ predictions stack up these industry insiders? Let’s take a look.

For those who are unaware, Kalshi is a platform that allows users to trade on the outcome of future events using event contracts. It’s like a futures contract, but instead of being tied to commodities or securities, it’s tied to news and current events.Over the life of the contract, supply and demand cause the price of the contract to fluctuate between $0.01 and $1. If the event seems more likely to occur, demand increases and the price goes up. If the event seems less likely, the price goes down. At any given time, the contract's priceprice of the contract represents the chances that an event will take place. For example, right now, Christopher Nolan is trading at $0.97 in our Best Director market, which means traders give him a 97% chance to win. In this way, Kalshi utilizes the wisdom of crowds to determine the likelihood of future events.

Compiling the opinions of numerous traders to come up with a consensus stands in sharp contrast to experts, who use their education and years of experience to try and accurately predict the outcome of future events. But by aggregating the predictions of numerous experts, GoldDerby.com is also utilizing the wisdom of crowds (albeit a crowd of experts), which allows us to make an apples-to-apples comparison.

Since we’ve already mentioned the Best Director category, let’s start there.Gold Derby Experts:All 25 of the expert predictions compiled by Gold Derby picked Nolan to win the award.Kalshi Traders:Meanwhile, Kalshi traders currently price Christopher Nolan’s chances of winning the Oscar for Best Director at 97%. Considering the way event trading works, where there’s always a financial incentive for someone to take the long shot, this is about as close to 100% consensus as you’re likely to get.

In the interest of avoiding repetition, we’ve combined these categories. Why?Gold Derby Experts:Since the experts compiled by Gold Derby are also in 100% agreement that Oppenheimer will win Best Picture, and that Da'Vine Joy Randolph and Robert Downey, Jr. will win Best Supporting Actress/Actor, respectively.Kalshi Traders:And again, it’s no surprise that Kalshi Traders are also nearly unanimous on these categories as well. ‘Yes’ contracts for Oppenheimer and Da'Vine Joy Randolph are both priced at $0.98%, while Robert Downey, Jr. is priced at $0.97.That said, if there’s an upset in any of these categories, a lucky few stand to make a lot of money.

This year's Best Actress category is one of the few Academy Awards that isn’t dominated by ‘Oppenheimer.’ It’s also one of the most competitive.Gold Derby Experts:Among the Gold Derby experts, 16 out of 25 selected Emma Stone for her performance in Poor Things, which puts her at 64%.Lily Gladstone from Killers of the Flower Moon was picked by eight experts, giving her 32%.Last but not least (this is technically true because other actresses got zero votes), Sandra Huller from Anatomy of a Fall received the backing of one expert, putting her chances at .4%.Kalshi Traders:Meanwhile, in the Kalshi market, it’s been a wild ride, with Stone and Gladstone battling for the lead.

In the fall of 2023, Gladstone was the favorite. But in January of 2024, Stone started to pull ahead, and the race seemed hers to lose. Less than a week ago, on February 24th, Stone’s chances of winning were priced as high as 79%. But an unexpected Gladstone upset at the SAG awards flipped the script, and Stone dropped like a rock (pun intended). As of 6.12 AM on Friday, March 1st, Gladstone is at 69% while Stone is at 35%. Huller is in a distant third place with 7%.

Another race with some twists and turns is Best Adapted Screenplay.Gold Derby Experts:Among Gold Derby experts, 10 out of 25 (40%) think American Fiction will bring home the trophy, while 9 out of 25 (36%) think Oppenheimer will notch another victory. And 5 out of 25 (20%) think Barbie will pull an upset.Kalshi Traders:For most of this market's history, Oppenheimer was the script to beat. But after a surprise at the BAFTAs in mid-February, American Fiction pulled ahead, and its chances to win are now priced at 63. Oppenheimer is priced at a distant second with 28%, while Barbie is in third with a 16% chance.

The Original screenplay race followed a similar pattern to Best Adapted. However in this place, the Gold Derby experts seemed to be ahead of the traders.

Gold Derby Experts:Anatomy of a Fall is the favorite to win Best Original Screenplay, with 19 out of 25 experts (76%) selecting the film. The Holdovers managed to snag five expert votes (20%), while Past Lives managed to gain the backing of just one expert (4%).Kalshi Traders:In a similar pattern to the Adapted Screenplay market, the Original Screenplay market saw a flip in December. The Holdovers was the favorite for months, but its chances are now priced at only 30%. Meanwhile, Anatomy of a Fall is priced at 69%, and Maestro is priced at 3%.

Finally, let’s take a look at a category that Oppenheimer has no chance of winning: Best Animated Feature.Gold Derby Experts:The experts have this pegged as a two-film race between Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron. The favorite to win is Spider-Man, with 15 votes (60%), while Heron snagged 10 (40%).Kalshi Traders: Traders see this race almost identically to the experts. It’s been that way for about a month, except for a brief tightening around the time of the SAG awards. Spider-Verse is currently priced at 63%, while The Boy and the Heron is priced at 63%.

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author(s). Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your particular circumstances, investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to any described. Any research views expressed represent those of the individual author and do not necessarily represent the views of Kalshi or its affiliates. Any demonstrative examples are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. While Kalshi strives to provide accurate and timely information, there may be inadvertent inaccuracies, errors and omissions, for which we apologize and expressly disclaim any liability. We reserve the right to make changes and corrections at any time, without notice. The content is provided on an "AS IS," "AS AVAILABLE" Basis. Any information denoting past or historical performance is not indicative of future performance and no reliance shall be placed on such information.