Kalshi traders see a high probability that U.S. Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle will leave her position following reports about her relationships with wealthy Greek businessmen.
Kalshi's market shows a 57% chance Guilfoyle will leave her position by Nov. 1 and a 77% chance by year's end.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What did the recordings reveal?
Guilfoyle’s time as Ambassador to Greece has come under scrutiny since new allegations and recordings surfaced about free trips she received from Greek businessmen and access to special events.
The Wall Street Journal interviewed witnesses and reviewed a recording of Guilfoyle discussing her connections with wealthy Greek businessmen at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
The Journal reported that the incident took place at Davos where she was “flexing her connections to wealthy Greek businessmen in January as she made an urgent request. She was being blocked from attending an upcoming dinner being held for Eric Trump, and she wanted to enlist an American businessman who was on the guest list to help get her in the door.”
“You know, I can deliver the world to you. Which you deserve,” Guilfoyle said on the recording. “I’m going to make you a lot of f---ing money.”
She was also angry that she wasn’t one of the invited guests to the Eric Trump dinner, and expressed her rage at the event organizer.
“You don’t have the f---ing U.S., you know, ambassador to Greece not come,” Guilfoyle said on the recording. “She should be kissing my f---ing ass.”
Guilfoyle also talked about free trips she had taken with private businessmen to special events such as the World Economic Forum in January. She took the trip on a private jet with Alexandros Exarchou, the chief executive of the Greek construction company Aktor Group.
“Governments from Bulgaria to Albania were encouraged by Guilfoyle to do business with Exarchou and buy billions of dollars of American natural gas from his company, the Journal has reported. The Greek businessman was, she said in the recording, ‘my people.’”
Guilfoyle’s high-profile connections didn’t end there. She also accepted a free room in Paris’s Four Seasons Hotel George V paid for by Greek shipping tycoon Nikolas Tsakos to attend a fashion show. She also spent part of her time “in the exclusive ultraluxury Swiss resort of Gstaad.”
“I see Nikos every f---ing day,” Guilfoyle said in the recording. “I’m flying with him to Paris. I’m with him for a f---ing week.”
Guilfoyle has not publicly addressed the latest allegations directly, but her attorney has denied wrongdoing. The State Department has declined to comment on whether a formal inspector general investigation is underway.
The Associated Press reported that President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are considering firing Guilfoyle over the allegations that arose at the height of the midterm elections. One senior U.S. officials said that Trump and Rubio are "extremely pissed off" with Guilfoyle's actions and "would likely decide on what action to take this week after Monday's Columbus Day holiday."
Rubio was particularly angered by the allegations “because he visited Athens just last week and Guilfoyle attended most, if not all, of his events and greeted him on his arrival with a bear hug as the allegations swirled.”
Trump’s cabinet members
Traders are also pricing an 18% chance that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will be the next member of the Trump administration to depart, followed by 18% that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will leave his position and 11% that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will be fired or resign.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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