Markets slash Kimmel cancellation odds after Disney reversal

Traders wasted no time repricing the future of Jimmy Kimmel Live! after ABC announced the late-night host would return to air Tuesday.

The Kalshi contract on whether the show will be cancelled this year fell to just 14% (and has since fallen to 9), down from nearly 60% last week when the network suspended production “indefinitely.” The move shows how sharply market sentiment shifted once Disney confirmed Kimmel’s reinstatement.

Kalshi prices had already been moving in this direction before Disney’s official statement. After the initial suspension sent cancellation odds soaring, traders began cutting those odds by the weekend, anticipating that negotiations between Disney and Kimmel could resolve quickly. Monday’s announcement accelerated that trend.

Other shows remain under watch. The View is priced at 20% odds of cancellation this year, while Late Night With Seth Meyers is at 14%.

Traders are also nearly unanimous that Kimmel will be back on air immediately. The Kalshi markets on timing show 98% odds of a new episode before Oct. 1, with probabilities rising to 99% for both November and year-end deadlines. Those prices jumped as soon as Disney confirmed its decision, signaling strong conviction that production will resume without delay.

The market reaction followed Walt Disney Co.’s statement Monday that Kimmel would return after a weeklong suspension. The company said it reached the decision following “thoughtful conversations” with Kimmel, according to The New York Times and Bloomberg.

ABC had pulled the show on Sept. 17 after Kimmel commented on the politics surrounding the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. The suspension, applauded by Trump allies including FCC Chair Brendan Carr, quickly ignited a national debate over free speech. Carr had even threatened Disney’s broadcast licenses, while affiliates Nexstar and Sinclair preempted the program, Bloomberg reported.

Why it matters
The twin markets highlight how traders are parsing Kimmel’s future. In the short run, contract prices overwhelmingly reflect confidence in a quick return. In the longer run, the cancellation market shows traders are still assigning some probability to renewed political or cultural fallout, though the odds are far lower than just a few days ago.

Kimmel’s contract with Disney runs through May 2026, and he remains one of the company’s most prominent figures, hosting the Oscars, fronting special events, and leading ABC’s late-night lineup. Market prices suggest traders see him as secure for now, while keeping a degree of caution on longer-term risks.

Takeaway
Kalshi markets now show:

Sources: New York Times, Sept. 22, 2025; Bloomberg, Sept. 22, 2025; Kalshi, Sept. 22, 2025.

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