L.A. election odds: Spencer Pratt has a 79% chance of advancing to second round

Reality TV star Spencer Pratt is expected to advance in the race for Los Angeles mayor, according to several Kalshi markets.

Assuming no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in Tuesday’s primary, the two candidates with the most votes will face off in a second round in November.

The market for who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election shows incumbent with Karen Bass with a 96% chance of moving on to the November election, while Pratt’s chances are priced at 79%.

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While both Bass and Pratt are forecast to make it through to round two, Bass is still the heavy favorite to win round one. Kalshi’s first round winner market puts her chances of receiving the most votes at 81%, compared to Pratt’s chances, which are priced at 19%.

Traders are also forecasting Pratt’s first round vote percentage to come in at 29%, well short of the 50% needed to secure an outright victory, but likely high enough to move on to November.

One place where Pratt has been leading in the numbers is with his fundraising efforts.

Newsweek reported that Pratt raised far more contributions for his LA mayoral campaign than Bass. Documents filed with the Los Angeles Ethics Commission show Pratt raised $2.72 million while Bass raised $283,000 in contributions between April 19-May 16.

Pratt also picked up some high-profile support, although not an official endorsement, from President Donald Trump.

ABC 7 reported that President Trump told reporters, “I’d like to see him do well. He’s a character. I heard he’s a big MAGA person.”

Bass jumped on Trump’s remarks as a sign of how Pratt might govern the city if he became mayor. Bass posted on X, “Both Trump and Pratt want ICE to invade our city and kidnap our neighbors.”

Odds of Trump officially endorsing Pratt are currently at 32%.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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