LA upset? Spencer Pratt's runoff odds dip to 54% as vote count continues

Election officials are still counting the votes from Tuesday’s primary election for Los Angeles mayor. Incumbent Karen Bass will advance to the runoff election, and traders currently favor Spencer Pratt to claim the second runoff spot, but not by much.

The market for who will advance in the LA mayoral election shows Pratt with a 54% chance of advancing and city councilwoman Nithya Raman’s chances priced at 46%.

The gap narrowed around midnight as additional returns came in. Despite a brief rebound earlier on Wednesday, Pratt is currently retesting his recent lows.

So far, the returns haven’t improved Pratt’s chances of winning the runoff election, assuming he makes it through. The market now shows Bass with a 73% chance of victory, followed by Pratt and Raman at 14% each.

Earlier today, The Washington Post reported that Bass is in the lead with 34.7% of the vote, followed by Pratt with 30.4%, and Raman with 22.3%.

As of Wednesday afternoon, approximately 63% of the votes have been counted and it could take days for election officials to finish counting the votes.

A runoff election occurs if one candidate does not receive at least 50% of the votes, and the top two candidates advance to the runoff.

Kalshi markets now predict:

Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}