The race for LeBron James' next team has once again tightened, with the Cleveland Cavaliers holding a three-point edge over the Miami Heat on Kalshi.
Kalshi's volatile next-team market now gives Cleveland a 38% chance of landing James, followed by Miami at 35% and Golden State at 15%. Cleveland gained eight points while Miami fell 11 points over the past day.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NBA
Why did the market move?
The New York Times reported that James' agent Rich Paul laid out as many as 10 teams James is considering on a whiteboard during his "Game Over" podcast with Max Kellerman, with the Cavs, Heat, 76ers, Nuggets, and Timberwolves as the core group and the Warriors among five others on the periphery. Paul said every interested team has already made its pitch.
“There’s been several people to call and say, ‘Hey, Rich, is there anything more we should be doing? We could be doing?” Paul said. “And my answer is, ‘No. We don’t need you to go above and beyond about anything. We understand it. It’s clear. All the messages have been sent.”
He also said on The Pat McAfee Show that the decision is now in James’ hands and he’ll announce his decision when he’s ready.
“It’s his choice,” Paul said. “You cannot rush it. He’s earned the right not to be rushed. You just have to be patient with him.”
Traders appear to be taking Paul’s words to heart. Just yesterday, the odds of James making his decision before this Sunday, July 26th, were at 80%. Now, the chance of that happening is priced at just 50%.
The Cleveland Cavaliers
The teams may have been doing everything they can to convince James, but some have been making moves to prepare in case he chooses Cleveland.
The Sporting News' Jon Conahan wrote that Evan Mobley could be drawn into trade speculation if James chooses Cleveland, given the roster's cost constraints.
“The one thing that’s absolutely undeniable in any Mobley trade is what the Cavaliers could get in return,” Conahan wrote. “I assume that’s one reason the team would even consider trading one of its better players, though I still don’t think getting assets back for Mobley will make the Cavaliers a better team in the short or long term.”
Everyone is also scrutinizing every quote that James utters during the lead up to his announcement. The Sporting News’ Billy Heyen says rumors are floating around that James dropped a big hint recently during his recent “Mind the Game” podcast appearance.
The Pacers’ Tyrese Haliburton brought up a private conversation the two had before they stepped in front of the mics. Not long after, James said, “That was an unbelievable ride and I am looking forward to what comes next as I wind down my journey. It’s going to be fun wherever I land.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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