Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins met Tuesday night for their first debate in Maine's closely watched Senate race as Jackson maintained a narrow lead on Kalshi.
The Maine Senate winner market shows Troy Jackson’s chances priced at 56%, followed by Sen. Susan Collins at 44%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What do the polls say?
The latest Marist poll shows Jackson leading over Collins, but the margin between them is still close.
The poll has Jackson at 51% and Collins at 47% among registered voters. The survey of 1,505 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
The first Maine debate
President Trump emerged as one of the debate's dominant subjects, with Jackson repeatedly attacking Collins over her voting record and Collins emphasizing areas where she has broken with the president.
The New York Times' recap of the debate noted that "Ms. Collins seemed to have two opponents on the debate stage: Mr. Jackson and Mr. Trump."
Jackson attacked Collins for not standing up to President Trump “even as she often expressed grave concerns about his policies.”
Collins countered Jackson’s attacks by noting her criticism of President Trump’s tariffs, calling for more oversight of ICE, and remarking, “I am not exactly his favorite senator.”
ICE also became a contentious point between the Maine Senate candidates. Jackson criticized Collins over the July fatal shooting of Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero by an ICE officer in Biddeford.
“He’s not here now because Senator Collins would not push back against ICE,” Jackson said in a tense moment.
“Ms. Collins called the shooting ‘horrific’ and said it had demonstrated that ICE needed ‘serious reforms,’” The Times wrote. “But the senator noted that she had helped secure funding for training for ICE agents and called for an impartial investigation.”
The Washington Post's recap discussed Jackson's criticism of Collins for her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, asking her, "What will it take for you to admit that you were wrong?"
Collins said she based her 2018 vote to confirm Kavanaugh on his qualifications rather than how he might rule in future cases, including the 2022 decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
“I do not feel he lied, but I think that he should not have said it was settled law because, to me, that meant it would not be overturned,” Collins said.
The candidates also clashed over rising prices, tariffs and the war in Iran.
Collins pointed to her efforts to secure exemptions from some of Trump's tariffs on Canadian goods, including rock salt used on Maine roads. Collins criticized Jackson for mocking her efforts.
“I didn’t mock the fact that she got road salt back,” Jackson said. “I mocked the fact that: What about everything else? You can’t eat rock salt.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi traders price:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
