Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson has risen to 66% in Kalshi's Maine Senate winner market, with incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 34%, as the race enters its final stretch and the two campaigns make their closing arguments to Maine voters.
The market movement comes amid a Washington Post-Schar School poll showing Jackson leading 50% to 46% among likely voters, and as Collins received a high-profile endorsement from former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who announced plans to campaign alongside her.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What do the polls say?
Jackson has a slight edge over Collins in one of the latest polls of the Maine Senate race.
A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll found Jackson with 50% support among likely voters, compared with 46% for Collins.
Manchin’s endorsement
Collins received an endorsement from former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who also announced plans to campaign with her.
The New York Times reported that former Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a former Democrat who became an independent before he retired, said he will campaign with Collins this week.
Manchin endorsed Collins, saying that he never worked with a “more centrist, independent-minded person.”
He also insisted that Collins does not answer to President Donald Trump as a Republican, responding to critics who claim that Collins has supported Trump’s agenda after coming out against some of his policies and nominees.
“She’s not Donald Trump’s senator,” Manchin said. “She’s not the Republican senator. She’s Maine’s senator.”
The Hill reported that Manchin openly criticized Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for opposing Collins and her campaign.
“I told him he was crazy in 2020 from working against her so hard, and he’s crazy now to work against her,” Manchin told Fox News.
Manchin said that Collins does not toe the line for the Republican Party, and argued that the Senate needs more leaders like her in office.
“This is not right,” Manchin added. “She is the soul of America. She is the soul of the Senate, and he knows he needs more Susan Collinses, no matter what side of the aisle they’re on. This is ridiculous.”
A referendum on Collins
Jackson's campaign has sought to make the election a referendum on Collins' record and her relationship with President Donald Trump.
The Washington Post's Dan Merica wrote that Jackson said in an interview that he knows he is not the first choice for the Democratic candidate in the Maine Senate race. Jackson launched his campaign after Graham Platner suspended his campaign in July, following several sexual assault allegations.
Jackson has framed the contest as a referendum on dissatisfaction with the federal government rather than on his own candidacy.
“This race isn’t really about me; it never was,” Jackson told The Post. “People should be angry that our government is broke.”
Democratic campaigns are emphasizing voter dissatisfaction with Trump's policies, particularly concerns about affordability and the cost of living.
“They are instead banking on rage with President Donald Trump – and deep-seated resentment over Collins’s role in advancing his policy goals – to deny the 73-year-old Republican senator a sixth term,” Merica wrote.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source:
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
