Kalshi's Rotten Tomatoes forecast for The Mandalorian and Grogu drops to 66%

With the review embargo for The Mandalorian and Grogu set to lift tomorrow, traders are already weighing in on where the film will land on Rotten Tomatoes.

The Kalshi market currently forecasts the film's Tomatometer score at 66%, down from 75% before the social media embargo lifted last week, suggesting early audience reactions have tempered expectations.

The shift in traders' expectations may also be due in part to the mixed early reviews.

Supporters of the film praised it as a fun creature feature with gripping adventure and awe-inspiring action.

Erik Davis of Fandango posted a glowing review on X calling it "a thrilling adventure full of big fights, gnarly creatures, and plenty of adorable Grogu moments. It's less about the lore and more a fun, freaky romp across the galaxy."

Puck News columnist Scott Mendelson quoted his 11-year-old kid who said when the credits rolled, "I don't even like Star Wars, but that was a really good movie."

Critic Hunter Bolding of ThatHollywoodShow.com called the film "a major return to form for Star Wars. All the things that make Star Wars special are here: whimsy, adventure, weird monsters, action, heart, and rolling Hutts."

Critics who disliked the film criticized it for being "predictable," "inoffensive" and "dull."

ComingSoon.net writer Jonathan Sim called it "one of the weakest Star Wars movies. An emotionless, predictable experience that doesn't push Din Djarin anywhere interesting."

Filmspeak.net creator and writer Griffin Schiller was a little kinder to the film, calling it "an inoffensive, technically impressive spectacle that's kinda a [sic] snooze fest."

/Film and Dread Central writer Bill Bria didn't hold anything back in his review on X. "Finally, they made a Star War for me to despise! Some cute moments can't save it from feeling terminally dull & offensively inoffensive."

The split reactions appear to mirror the market itself, with traders still expecting the film to land in Fresh territory — but only barely.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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