Today, Arizonans in the 7th Congressional District head to the polls in a special election to decide their next representative.
AZ-07 is a vast district that stretches across the Arizona-Mexico border from western Tucson to Yuma, and extends to parts of metro Phoenix. It’s a strongly blue, majority-Hispanic district (around 60% Hispanic), with Harris winning it by 22% in 2024.
However, the district was not immune to rightward shifts among Hispanic voters, and Harris’ margin was actually an 11-point underperformance from Biden’s 33-point victory here in 2020.
Now, Democrat Adelita Grijalva is strongly favored to beat Republican Daniel Butierez in the race to replace her father, the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva, who represented this part of Arizona for over 20 years. In fact, Grijalva is at a 99% chance to win in the Kalshi market, where she has been trading near that level for weeks.
But margins matter. Democrats had been on a special election outperformance streak this year, but that was snapped last week in Minnesota after the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk. Recent polls have shown Trump’s approval slipping massively with Hispanics, but whether that actually plays out in the votes here remains to be seen. Ultimately, these trends will help determine if, and by how much, Grijalva outperforms Harris’ margin.
Kalshi traders suggest she will likely outperform: contracts assign about a 90% chance that she wins by at least 30 points, with the most likely outcome between 35 and 45 points. The market remains split on whether she will exceed that range, reflecting uncertainty over how far she can run up the margin.
If Grijalva does win, she would also likely be the critical 218th vote for Representative Thomas Massie’s discharge petition in the House, forcing a vote on the Epstein files release. Rarely does a special election hold such immediate and important impact, and it’s one more reason to follow this race closely.
Image Credit: Gage Skidmore
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