Usually, special elections in the House of Representatives are pretty sleepy affairs, with low turnout and little impact on the ultimate balance of power. But a handful of special elections this year could be the key first step in achieving a goal that perhaps unites more Americans than any other: getting the U.S. government to release all the Epstein files.
Why is this the case?
Currently, the House has 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats. If full, it would be split 220R – 215D, but there are 3 vacancies (2 GOP, 1 Dem) due to deaths or retirements.
Earlier in the summer, a bipartisan House bill was introduced by GOP Rep. Thomas Massie and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna that would compel the Justice Department to release all their files in the Jeffrey Epstein case. But that bill has remained stuck in committee.
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Speaker Mike Johnson controls the legislative calendar in the House and did not put the bill up for a vote. He is likely trying to avoid angering the Trump administration, which has sought to keep Epstein out of the spotlight. A full public House vote certainly wouldn’t help with that.
But there is a workaround. Representatives can file a “discharge petition” to force the bill out of committee and onto the House calendar for a full vote. That petition requires 218 signatures, which is a majority of the House.
Currently, 4 Republicans have joined all the Democrats to sign this discharge petition. But that only totals 217 signatures, which is still one short of the 218-signature threshold.
This is where the special elections really matter.
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Democrats just won a special election to retain Virginia’s 11th district, a Democratic district that Harris won by 34 points in 2024. The newly elected Representative James Walkinshaw provided the 217th signature.
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But there is another special election in a deep blue district, Arizona’s 7th, later this month. The Democratic candidate there, Adelita Grijalva, is also expected to sign the discharge petition if she wins. And our markets indicate she is very likely to be elected.
That would get the petition to 218, assuming no current signatories revoke their signatures (which is far from a given). This would be enough to force a floor vote on the bill. If those same 218 signatories vote “Yes” on the bill itself, then the bill would officially pass the House and head to the Senate for further debate and votes.
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However, there is no guarantee that such a bill would pass, as the Republicans in Congress balance the optics of keeping the files secret against pressure from the Trump administration.
Whether this bill advances depends on several steps: a Democratic victory in AZ-07, an added signature without any defections, and an eventual majority ‘Yes’ vote. Together, these factors shape the forecast of whether the Epstein release bill can pass the House by year’s end.
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