Kentucky voters head to the polls Tuesday for the Republican primary, and Kalshi traders are pricing in trouble for Rep. Thomas Massie’s reelection bid.
The Kalshi KY-04 market shows challenger Ed Gallrein’s odds priced at 63%, while Massie is now at 37%, down from nearly 80% earlier this month.
The polls
Several factors seem to be affecting Gallrein and Massie's place on the market, but one of the chief causes could come from recent polling.
The New York Times reported that two key polls from GrayHouse and SoCal Strategies show Gallrein with a sizable lead over Massie by at least seven points.
Two more polls show different results, but they don't give much of an advantage to Massie. The Neighborhood Research Corporation shows the race is dead even. The Big Data Poll shows Massie in the lead, but only by one point.
Regardless of who ultimately wins the GOP nominations, Kalshi traders now think there is a 95% chance the GOP will win the district in November.
Who did Trump back in the race?
Massie has faced primary challenges in past races, but this time he's battling a candidate backed by President Donald Trump and Trump-aligned PACs that have poured millions into the race.
NBC News reported that the Kentucky congressional primary race has become the most expensive in history, with spending reaching more than $32 million. The bulk of the money has come from "Trump-aligned groups and pro-Israel organizations pouring millions into negative ads against Massie."
Why is Trump targeting Massie?
Massie has become one of the most outspoken Republican critics of President Trump.
The Congressman led the charge to release all of the Jeffrey Epstein files in the House, and spearheaded the Epstein Files Transparency Act that required the Department of Justice to release the files detailing the investigation into the convicted sex offender.
President Trump has also become a vocal opponent of Massie. The president posted on Truth Social on Sunday that Massie "must be thrown out of office ASAP!"
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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