Oklahoma Republicans are voting today in the state's gubernatorial primary runoff, with former state Sen. Mike Mazzei holding a sizable lead over Attorney General Gentner Drummond on Kalshi.
The market for the Oklahoma Republican governor nominee shows Mazzei’s chances at 80% over Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond at 22%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What do the polls say?
While traders seem confident, polling suggests the race could be close.
270towin.com reports that a recent Sooner Survey found Drummond and Mazzei tied among likely runoff voters at 44% each, with 12% undecided. The survey has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
President Trump's endorsement
The Oklahoma runoff is also being closely watched as another test of President Donald Trump's endorsement power during the midterm primaries.
The Hill's Julia Mueller reported that President Trump picked Mazzei to endorse in the initial primary race. Drummond finished just 0.28 percentage points ahead of Mazzei in the June primary, with both candidates receiving about 26% of the vote.
Trump has continued to endorse Mazzei throughout the runoff campaign. His initial endorsement surprised some political observers because Drummond and other Republican candidates had been viewed as frontrunners in the race. Trump’s endorsement may be one factor behind Mazzei’s sizable lead on the Kalshi market.
“Along with the special runoff for Senate in South Carolina the same day, Oklahoma marks one of the final midterm primary gauges of the president’s political power amid his lackluster approval numbers – and it comes after five of his gubernatorial picks in open primaries lost so far this cycle,” Mueller wrote.
Mazzei has also faced scrutiny over his campaign's payments to political consultant and longtime Trump ally Roger Stone. Campaign filings show Mazzei's campaign paid Stone's Drake Ventures $82,500 through Aug. 10.
Trump and Drummond
President Trump has done more than just endorse Mazzei for Oklahoma governor. “He’s warning Oklahoma Republicans off Drummond, who has drawn the president’s ire over his resistance to a planned aluminum smelter in Oklahoma,” Mueller wrote.
During his tenure as attorney general, Drummond sued to block the building of the smelter plant. The project, which Mueller described as "a Trump-backed project that would be the largest facility of its kind in the country," has drawn opposition from residents who argue it threatens local lands and would give too much control to the Dubai-based Emirates Global Aluminum.
Trump has openly criticized Drummond during the gubernatorial campaign. The Hill also reported that President Trump called Drummond “a FAKE Republican” on his Truth Social page over the smelting plant issue and his impeachment hearings during his first term.
“Gentner Drummond has also stated publicly he had ‘no opinion’ on the BOGUS IMPEACHMENT of a young and very handsome gentleman, named President Donald J. Trump (ME!),” President Trump wrote.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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