With 13 days until Election Day, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers meet tonight at 7 p.m. ET at WXYZ-TV's studios in Detroit for their second and final debate. It's the last time the two will share a stage before early in-person voting opens across most of Michigan on Saturday.
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Currently on Kalshi it stands as El-Sayed 69%, Rogers 31%, with El-Sayed ticking up again this morning. That's nearly identical to where the market sat after the first debate. El-Sayed dropped from the mid 70s immediately after the Oct. 8 debate in Grand Rapids and has held in the high 60s ever since. Kalshi traders are pricing a margin of roughly El-Sayed +2.3, and more than $11.5 million has been traded on the race.
What do the polls say?
A new Marist poll released this morning (Oct. 15–18) has El-Sayed at 50% and Rogers at 48% among likely voters (+2), within the ±4.3 point margin of error. Among all registered voters, El-Sayed's lead grows to 7 points. He also leads independents 50% to 44%, and a majority of likely voters (51%) expect him to win.
The Trump factor shows up clearly in the numbers. The president's approval among Michigan likely voters sits at 42%, with 57% disapproving, and 44% of likely voters say their congressional vote is mainly a vote against Trump, compared to 18% who say it's a vote for him.
The most recent poll before Marist, from Rasmussen Reports (Oct. 12–14, 798 likely voters), showed a similar 46% to 44% race. The RealClearPolitics average has El-Sayed up about 2.6 points.
The 48 Hours Before the Debate
The week started on Fox News. On Monday night, Rogers and GOP governor nominee John James did a town hall with Sean Hannity in St. Clair Shores. Rogers argued that El-Sayed is vulnerable with two groups Democrats usually count on, Black voters and Jewish voters, and called him a "manufactured candidate." Fox said it invited El-Sayed and Democratic governor nominee Jocelyn Benson, but their campaigns did not respond.
On Tuesday, both candidates appeared at the Detroit Economic Club, though not on stage together. Each answered the same eight questions on the economy for about 20 minutes. Rogers leaned on his access to the Trump administration and warned that democratic socialism was on the ballot. El-Sayed opened by calling himself a capitalist whose fight is with a handful of giant corporations, and he called for an FDA-style agency to regulate AI.
Meanwhile, the money keeps coming. El-Sayed raised $30.7 million last quarter, the most of any candidate in Michigan history and more than three times Rogers' $9.7 million. But outside groups still tilt toward Rogers, and disclosed spending in the race has now passed $270 million. Over the weekend a Republican group added another $4.7 million to the race for Rogers.
Voters are already moving. As of Tuesday, 789,572 Michiganders had returned ballots, about 10.7% of registered voters, and ballot requests are running 17% ahead of where they were at this point in 2022. Nearly all of those are absentee ballots, which Michigan voters can request without giving a reason. Early in-person voting is a separate option, and while a few cities like Grand Rapids and East Lansing have already opened sites, most communities, including Detroit, start on Saturday. Historically, the busiest early voting days are the final weekend and the Monday before Election Day.
What to Watch Tonight
The first debate went off the rails. The two men talked over each other for an hour and were still arguing when the station cut to commercial. Rogers called El-Sayed a con man and questioned whether he is "really a doctor," while El-Sayed called Rogers a rubber stamp for Trump and hit him over his Florida home. Expect more of the same, but a few things are worth watching:
Rogers' pitch to Black and Jewish voters. He previewed it on Hannity, and it lands three days before Barack Obama campaigns with El-Sayed in Detroit.
How far Rogers distances himself from Trump. At the first debate he broke with the administration on Canada tariffs and Minnesota's immigration crackdown. With Trump's approval underwater in the state, that balancing act matters.
El-Sayed on health care and Israel. Medicare for All and his stance on aid to Israel drew the sharpest Republican attacks in Grand Rapids. He needs to close the sale with moderates and Stevens primary voters.
Trump's attacks. The president mocked El-Sayed's name at an Oct. 16 rally in Georgia and has repeated claims tying him to the Muslim Brotherhood, which El-Sayed denies. Expect it to come up.
The market reaction. The last debate knocked El-Sayed down several points on Kalshi. Watch whether tonight moves the number in either direction.
The Final Push
After tonight, the race turns into a battle of surrogates. Obama rallies with El-Sayed and Benson in Detroit on Saturday at 5 p.m., the first day of early in-person voting in most of the state. Trump follows on Sunday with a 3 p.m. rally at McMorran Place in Port Huron.
Republicans haven't won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994, but the state's recent margins have been razor thin. Trump carried it in 2024 while Elissa Slotkin beat Rogers by roughly 19,000 votes on the same ballot. Traders still see El-Sayed as a clear favorite, but the polls say this is a 2 to 3 point race, and tonight is the last chance for either candidate to move it in front of a statewide audience.
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