Midterm election results 2026: When races will be called

Americans will head to the polls for the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, with control of both chambers of Congress up for grabs. 

But while millions of votes will be cast and counted, and dozens of races will be called on election night, the final results of the midterms may take considerably longer to determine. 

In closely contested races, outstanding mail ballots, recounts, and even runoff elections could delay the outcome for days or weeks. For example, during the 2022 midterms it took more than a week for Republicans to be projected as the House majority party. 

With less than two weeks until Election Day, Kalshi's midterm election markets favor Democrats to flip both chambers, which are currently Republican-held. As of October 22, 2026, traders give Democrats a 91% chance to win the House and 67% chance of taking control of the Senate. 

However, those probabilities are subject to change as new information comes in and votes are counted.

Here’s when to expect the 2026 midterm election results, which races could take the longest, and how to follow the battle for control of Congress. 

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.}

The first 2026 midterm election results could begin arriving after 6:00 p.m. ET on November 3, when polling locations in parts of Indiana and Kentucky close. 

From there, additional states will begin reporting results throughout the evening, with the final polling locations in Alaska scheduled to close early Wednesday morning. 

Here’s a breakdown of the major poll closing times, according to 270toWin.

Some states span multiple time zones, which means polling locations may close at different times. 

Importantly, the closing of polls does not mean all votes have been counted or that a winner will immediately be projected or announced. 

In states where one party enjoys an overwhelming majority, news organizations may project winners shortly after polls close. For example, a Democratic victory in a Vermont House race is unlikely to require the same scrutiny as closely contested Senate race in a battleground state.

But more predictable outcomes may offer little insight into which party will ultimately control Congress. 

Instead, attention will shift towards key competitive races in states like Maine, Michigan, Georgia, Iowa, and others, where relatively small margins could determine the balance of power. 

While television networks and news organizations frequently announce election winners, these declarations are projections rather than official results. 

Organizations like the Associated Press analyze incoming vote totals, historical voting patterns, voter turnout data, and the number and location of outstanding ballots before deciding whether a candidate has secured an insurmountable advantage.

In some cases, a winner may be projected shortly after the polls close, even though relatively few votes have been counted.

Yet, in more competitive contests, news organizations may wait until a much larger share of the ballots has been processed to project a winner in their coverage.

This is where the familiar election-night designation “too close to call” becomes important. A race may remain uncalled if there are outstanding ballots and expected voting patterns provide a realistic path for a trailing candidate to overcome the leading candidate. 

For example, a candidate leading by 10,000 votes may appear headed for victory, but if tens of thousands of ballots remain uncounted in areas that favor the trailing candidate, the outcome could remain uncertain or “too close to call.” 

Additionally, a news outlet may decline to project a winner even when one candidate holds a substantial lead if they lack sufficient information about how many votes remain to be counted. 

Regardless, election officials continue counting eligible ballots according to their state law before they canvass and certify final results. Therefore, a projected winner and a certified election result are different things, often separated by days or weeks. 

While many election results will become apparent on November 3, some states have procedures that could extend the timeline significantly and delay the official results. 

Three states in particular are worth watching during the 2026 midterm elections. 

California allows mail ballots to arrive up to seven days after Election Day as long as they are postmarked by November 3. 

This means that eligible ballots arriving through November 10 can still be counted, potentially changing margins in closely contested congressional districts. Election officials are allowed several weeks to process and verify ballots with county certification due on December 3 and statewide certification scheduled for December 11.  

Maine uses a ranked-choice voting system that could create another complication in a key Senate election. 

Under the system, voters can rank candidates in order of preference rather than just selecting one. 

If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, an additional tabulation redistributes votes from eliminated candidates based on voters’ subsequent preferences. 

That process can require ballots and election data to be collected for centralized tabulation, extending the time necessary to determine a winner. 

With Republican Sen. Susan Collins facing a competitive reelection campaign, Maine could play an important role in deciding which party controls the Senate. 

Georgia presents a more substantial potential delay. 

Under state law, candidates in applicable congressional elections must receive a majority of votes to win outright. If no candidate reaches that threshold on Election Day, the top two finishers advance to a runoff election scheduled for December 1. 

If control of the Senate hinges on Georgia’s race between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins, and that contest requires a runoff, the nation may need to wait nearly a month to determine which party controls the chamber. 

The certification deadline for the state is November 20, while certification from a December runoff would have a December 18 cutoff.

Beyond the states with potentially lengthy counting procedures, competitive Senate races could determine when Americans learn who controls Congress. 

Senate races in Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Michigan are key to the balance of power and expected to be competitive. 

Some or all could be decided on election night, though others may remain too close to call as outstanding ballots are counted. The ultimate timeline will depend not only on how close the individual races are, but also on how many seats each party has already secured elsewhere. 

Individuals can follow the key Senate races and get general information on the battleground contests below:

While news sources will report incoming vote totals and project winners, Kalshi gives individuals a different way to follow the races and recent news on and leading up to Election Day. 

Kalshi offers markets for individual races, the overall balance of power, control of the House, the Senate, and more. As votes come in, traders will shift expectations, with prices and probabilities reflecting the moves in real time whereas calls from news organizations and certified election results could lag by days. 

While control of Congress could be decided as early as election night, there’s a chance results are unknown until much later. For example, in 2022 it took more than a week to determine who would control the House. 

Election certification deadlines vary based on state. For example, in California, results must be certified statewide by December 11. However, in Georgia, results from the midterm elections must be certified by a November 20 cutoff. If a runoff occurs, those results must be certified by December 18. 

While the 2026 midterm election results will not be known until votes are counted, as of October 22, 2026, Kalshi traders favor Democrats to take control of both the House and the Senate.

The 2026 midterm election results will begin arriving on November 3, but determining who controls Congress may take considerably longer. 

Some House or Senate races could be projected immediately after polls close, while other closely contested elections or those involving mail ballots, ranked-choice voting, or potential runoffs could require days or weeks of additional time. 

As votes come in, follow Kalshi’s 2026 midterm election markets to track how traders’ expectations for the House, Senate, and individual congressional races change in real time.

Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Follow Logan Hitchcock on X: LHitch09 |
Image Source: adamkaz

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}