The week ahead: Senate races, sequins, and September inflation

Good afternoon, traders.

The weekend was packed with the MLB Playoffs, College Football rivalries, and NFL games. We hope you were able to get some rest because this week has some big events in store.

With November less than a month away, we'll be focusing mostly on the upcoming midterms, namely in Michigan and Texas.

Meanwhile, Dancing with the Stars has been well underway and tomorrow will be extra special with Super Bowl Night.

Last but not least, the consumer price index report tracking inflation and other economic metrics also comes out Wednesday, setting the stage for a rate decision later this month from the Federal Reserve.

With all that to tackle, we’re gonna jump right in.

Michigan and Texas have been drawing significant national attention as both states' Senate races have become increasingly more competitive. While Michigan has historically been a swing state, Texas has been a Republican stronghold that is now seeing unusually close polling, making matters even more interesting.

Starting with Michigan, on October 8 Abdul El Sayed and Mike Rogers held a debate where Rogers broke ranks with Trump by criticizing tariffs on Canada and calling for an end to the conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, El-Sayed focused on primarily economic issues like healthcare and corporate influence in politics but was attacked on foreign policy.

The seat the candidates are competing for is held by Democratic Senator Gary Peters, who is retiring. This means that despite being more progressive than most members of the Democratic Party, El-Sayed is fighting to keep the seat blue. This seat is particularly important because if the Democrats lose it, it becomes substantially harder for the party to regain control of the Senate.

Heading to the Lone Star State, Talarico and Paxton have been in a duel for the Texas Senate that has taken a surprising turn.

President Trump appeared with Ken Paxton on October 7 at a rally in San Antonio and called for a debate to be held between Talarico and Paxton. Talarico, a former school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, accepted, but Paxton has yet to agree.

Talarico is campaigning primarily on the economy and access to healthcare while Paxton is focusing on reducing government spending and social issues.

Interestingly, while this market may make it appear that Texas is becoming more Democratic, Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, which was substantially larger than his margin of victory in 2016 or 2020. This has many political analysts seeing the current favor toward Talarico as a temporary candidate-specific shift due to some controversies in the past with Paxton, and economic dissatisfaction with how Republicans are running the government at the federal level. 

As with anything, and especially politics, how these races end up will be something we’ll have to wait and see.

Dancing with the Stars originally premiered on television over 21 years ago in 2005. Currently in its 35th season, the show continues to teach celebrities how to dance and attract audiences. If you aren't familiar with the show, each season a celebrity is paired with a professional dancer who teaches them a dance routine and the pairs perform together weekly. Votes from the judges and audiences are combined in order to determine which pairs win and which are eliminated.

The Season 35 premiere raked in 6.67 million US viewers, and its rating among younger audiences has continued to grow. Traders are no exception to this with nearly $6 million already having been traded on who will be the Dancing with the Stars Season 35 Winner.

Though still early in the season, the fifth week of competition premiering tomorrow night will be interesting. The theme of the episode is Super Bowl Night. The 11 remaining couples will perform their choreographed routines set to songs from iconic Super Bowl halftime shows including Rihanna, Lady Gaga, Shakira, and Bruno Mars. Traders have already begun speculating on who will be the Episode 6 Elimination.

The former college football player Tyler Cameron finished as the runner-up in Season 15 of The Bachelorette in 2019 and afterward began ventures in real estate and home construction. His fame from the series carried well into other TV shows where he has become recognizable. Cameron scored a 21/30 in last week's performance, which put him in the middle of the pack, behind many of the leading performers.

Jackson Olson, second baseman for the viral Savannah Bananas, was among the final three couples up for elimination last week but managed to survive. Unfortunately, he posted a comment mocking fellow contestant Guillermo Rodriguez's dancing ability that he apologized for after drawing criticism from fans. With fan voting composing some of the likelihood of elimination, this probably didn't help his case.

Guillermo Rodriguez, longtime sidekick of Jimmy Kimmel on his hit late-night show, scored significantly lower than Cameron and Olson with a 13/30 but his decades of mainstream television exposure and larger-than-life comedic personality give him a boost among fans.

While we can’t be sure what will happen tomorrow night, we’re sure it will be entertaining.

If you've filled up your car with gas in the past month, you've likely noticed that something is up. And that something is the price of fuel… and many other things. 

Traders are expecting CPI in September to come in hotter than expected earlier this year, largely driven by rising energy prices. However, there is nuance. Energy carries significant weight in the CPI, meaning an increase in energy prices can materially inflate the headline figure even if core inflation remains the same. While this distinction might not matter too much to the average person, it does matter to the Federal Reserve, which meets later this month.

The Fed raised rates in September, and the next decision is scheduled for October 28. Traders have done a complete 180 in the past couple of days after the labor market weakened, which made it much more difficult for the Fed to justify another rate hike. But as we saw last week, things can change quickly, so we'll just have to wait and see.

There's no shortage of events to trade on Kalshi. So whether it's politics, reality TV, economic metrics, or something completely different, we're sure there's a market for you on Kalshi. 

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Andy Feliciotti

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}