New Hampshire is a key state Democrats need to win if they want to take back the Senate in November 2026. As of now, Kalshi markets’ show they have a very good chance.
Traders currently price U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas chance of winning at 90%, followed by Republican nominee John Sununu at 10%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What do the polls say?
The latest survey from the New Hampshire Institute of Politics (NHIP) commissioned by AARP shows Pappas has the lead over his competition.
The Hill reports that the survey found Pappas holds a 7-point lead over Sununu among likely voters.
The survey also talked to voters age 50 and older about the election and found that Pappas only holds a 1-point lead over Sununu.
“With affordability a top concern for New Hampshire residents this year, candidates should tell voters how they will protect and strengthen Social Security and ensure that everyone is able to age with dignity and purpose,” said AARP’s New Hampshire state director Christina FitzPatrick.
Can Republicans still win New Hampshire?
Despite trailing in the polls, John Sununu continues to attract millions of dollars in Republican-aligned campaign advertising.
Time Magazine’s Philip Elliott wrote that New Hampshire “may be Republicans’ best chance for an upset over a Democratic contender.”
Elliott notes that even though Sununu may be behind in the polls, Sununu benefits from a well-established political family name in New Hampshire. His father and brother are former governors, and the Sununu name is about as bullet-proof in New Hampshire as the party could find.
“His one term in the Senate from 2003 to 2009 was well-regarded in the state for his willingness to cross party lines, particularly his opposition to the post-9/11 PATRIOT Act over provisions that were anathema to the libertarian-minded New Hampshire voters,” Elliott wrote.
Sununu also doesn’t have the President Donald Trump connection problem that other candidates have in their Senate races.
“No one is really confusing any member of the Sununu clan for a MAGA cheerleader,” Elliott wrote. “His family has long been seen as aligned with the Bush wing of the party – his father was George H.W. Bush’s White House chief of staff – and his brother was a prominent Trump critic.”
The Republican Party seems to like Sununu’s chances along the same lines of thinking. NPR’s Josh Rogers reported that “GOP-aligned groups have spent big on ads attacking Pappas.”
“Earlier this month, the pro-Trump No Going Back PAC reserved $10 million in New Hampshire advertising,” Rogers reported on NPR’s Morning Edition. “The same group is also stuffing mailboxes with flyers claiming Pappas sold out to Big Insurance because he backed extended premium subsidies for Obamacare.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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