Wildfire smoke has degraded air quality across much of the Northeast and Upper Midwest for days. However, Kalshi traders expect conditions to improve ahead of Sunday's World Cup final between Spain and Argentina, which is being played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, about 10 miles west of New York City.
The market for New York City's air quality level by Sunday at 3 p.m. Eastern now shows an air quality forecast of 76.1.
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An AQI of 76.1 falls within the Environmental Protection Agency's "Moderate" category, meaning air quality is acceptable, though unusually sensitive individuals may experience minor concerns. That forecast represents a significant improvement from Thursday, when the AQI climbed above 230.
NBC New York reported that on Thursday, the air quality level exceeded 230, a "Very Unhealthy" rating that causes health effects for all groups of people. The poor air quality began before dawn Eastern time on Thursday "and stayed there for much of the day before spiking in the evening."
What’s causing the smoke?
The smoke is coming from wildfires that have been burning for days across parts of Canada and the United States.
The New York Times reports that the smoke has traveled over a large swath of the Northeast and Upper Midwest, affecting states and cities including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Washington, D.C. and New York City. The smoke plume stretches "from the Great Lakes to New England."
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has addressed the situation, but Canada's division of responsibilities between the federal government and the provinces has complicated the wildfire response.
“Like all natural resources, forests fall mostly under the jurisdiction and care of Canada’s provinces, which collect royalties for commercial logging and are responsible for fighting wildfires,” the Times reported. “The federal government deals only with fires in national parks and on military bases.”
Where else is the smoke causing problems?
New York City isn't the only major American city grappling with air quality problems. The Times also reported that cities including Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis and Toronto recorded dangerously high AQI levels.
Milwaukee “recorded the worst air quality in history.” One public health expert said, “Nobody should spend time outside.”
Conditions have been similarly severe north of the border. Two hospitals in Toronto "showed an 80 percent increase in emergency room visits potentially related to poor air quality, including patients reporting shortness of breath and chest pain."
Meteorologists from the National Weather Service said weekend rain showers could "bring a reprieve, and cleaner air, to the area before it hosts soccer's World Cup final on Sunday," and those showers appear to be materializing, helping explain why Kalshi traders now forecast an AQI of 76.1 for the city by Sunday afternoon.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
New York City's AQI on Sunday at 3 p.m. Eastern: 76.1
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