With two rivals having squared off since before World War II, the NFC North is a division built on tradition, Midwestern passion, and freezing weather.
It’s also produced top Super Bowl threats annually. Unlike other divisions where winners scoot across the line, the victor has produced 12-plus wins each year over the last decade.
Four competitive teams make for one of the best divisional races in the sport. Who ends up winning it?
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL. See full disclaimer below.
NFC North Division Winner?
On the back of mathematically the easiest schedule in the NFL, the Lions (35% at Kalshi) are currently the favorites in the division. The immense skill talent of players like Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown makes Detroit, on its fast track indoors, one of the best offenses in the league, but their 2025 season crumbled due to injuries on the offensive line and secondary. They have not had an ideal start to the year there, with cornerback Terrion Arnold's release and center Cade Mays' season-ending injury.
Is the door open for the Packers (26% at Kalshi), then? With Jordan Love, who was 13th in yards per attempt (7.7) a year ago, at the helm, it is certainly possible. They have questions of their own, though. How will Josh Jacobs' legal battle play out? Plus, they are replacing two noteworthy starters at left tackle (Rasheed Walker) and boundary receiver (Romeo Doubs).
The Bears (22% at Kalshi) are full of optimism after advancing further in the playoffs than any other team in the division last season. Third-year quarterback Caleb Williams continues to build his comfort in Ben Johnson's masterful offensive scheme, but Chicago's trajectory is not fully upward, either. They dealt D.J. Moore to Buffalo for cap purposes, and the team's talented secondary already took a massive blow with Coby Bryant's knee injury.
It is often the fourth-place team in odds that has no chance at a winning record — much less the division title. That is not the case for the Vikings (19% at Kalshi), who are looking to catch lightning in a bottle twice. They rectified Sam Darnold's career in a 14-win season two years ago, and former Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray will take over for J.J. McCarthy. If effective, the Vikings' defense, which ranked third in DVOA (defensive efficiency) under Brian Flores last season, seems to be stout annually.
NFC North: Exact Order
With one of the best fanbases in the NFL, any Bears momentum will be discussed in full, and they won the division for the first time since 2018 last season.
As it logically makes sense, the exact order of Kalshi’s odds market (Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago, and Minnesota) is trading around the top of the board.
The Bears went from “worst to first” in 2025, becoming the first team in the division to do so since…the Bears in 2018. Detroit, which finished last on a tiebreaker at 9-8 a year ago, is favored in the market to become just the third team to do it since this current four-team arrangement was configured in 2002.
NFC North: Total Wins
The NFC North saw all four teams post winning records a year ago, becoming just the second division (2023 AFC North) to do so. This feat has become a bit easier thanks to an odd-numbered, 17-game schedule.
The final tally on wins was 39, which is why 38+ total wins (62% at Kalshi) is now trading as a more likely outcome than not.
One Team, One Question
Lions
Points shouldn’t be an issue at Ford Field. Can their defense get enough stops to make it count?
Packers
The days of Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre towering over a lowly division are over. Does Jordan Love earn his stripes with more on his plate?
Bears
Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson appear to be a dynamic duo. Will Chicago’s young pass-catchers and pass rush be able to meet their level?
Vikings
Can Kevin O’Connell resurrect Kyler Murray to top form, or is it another year of asking “what’s next” at quarterback?
Follow Austin Swaim on X: @ASwaim3
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: All-Pro Reels
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the National Football League.
