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This column is commentary on Kalshi market prices, not investment advice. Trading involves risk, and so does asking a Dolphins fan how the season is going.
Four weeks into the season, we have seven teams at two extremes. The 49ers, Chiefs and Vikings are 4-0. The Texans, Chargers, Titans and Dolphins are 0-4. The other 25 teams live in the middle.
The winless club lost a member Thursday night, when Tampa Bay beat Dallas 24-16. Two of the four remaining meet on Sunday.
(For the latest odds, visit Kalshi's NFL hub, and check out our NFL Power Rankings.)
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the National Football League.
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Last Undefeated Team
Measured by week of first loss. Bye weeks are not considered.
1. San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
San Francisco has outscored opponents 122-64, and last Sunday's 24-14 win over Denver ended with a 56-yard George Kittle touchdown that closed the argument. Brock Purdy had two touchdowns and no interceptions. Now they go to Seattle to face the Seahawks and their "12th Man" crowd. It will be a tough test, and a win keeps San Francisco in this market.
Next 5 games (average difficulty 4.6/10)*:
Up next, Week 5: at Seattle (3-1), Sun 10/11. Difficulty 8/10
Week 6: vs. Washington (1-3), Mon 10/19. Difficulty 1/10
Week 7: at Atlanta (2-2), Sun 10/25. Difficulty 5/10
Week 8: bye
Week 9: vs. Las Vegas (3-1), Sun 11/8. Difficulty 4/10
Week 10: at Dallas (2-3), Sun 11/15. Difficulty 5/10
2. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Kansas City is 4-0, but two of those wins came by exactly three points: 33-30 over Indianapolis, and 30-27 in Las Vegas, which ended the Raiders' perfect start. The NFL awards no style points, and the Chiefs have never asked for any.
Next 5 games (average difficulty 4.2/10)*:
Week 5: bye
Up next, Week 6: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (0-4), Sun 10/18. Difficulty 1/10
Week 7: at Seattle (3-1), Sun 10/25. Difficulty 8/10
Week 8: at Denver (2-2), Sun 11/1. Difficulty 6/10
Week 9: vs. New York Jets (1-3), Sun 11/8. Difficulty 1/10
Week 10: at Atlanta (2-2), Sun 11/15. Difficulty 5/10
3. Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
Minnesota hung 39 on Green Bay in Week 1, then beat 0-4 Miami by only five, 15-10, last Sunday. NFL.com's Week 5 power rankings dropped the unbeaten Vikings out of the top 10 anyway.
Next 5 games (average difficulty 4.6/10)*:
Up next, Week 5: at New Orleans (1-3), Sun 10/11. Difficulty 3/10
Week 6: bye
Week 7: vs. Indianapolis (2-2), Sun 10/25. Difficulty 3/10
Week 8: at Detroit (2-2), Sun 11/1. Difficulty 6/10
Week 9: vs. Buffalo (3-1), Mon 11/9. Difficulty 8/10
Week 10: at Green Bay (2-2), Sun 11/15. Difficulty 3/10
Last Team to Win a Game
Measured by week of first win.
Tampa Bay left the club Thursday night, beating Dallas 24-16 behind undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels. "America's Team" is now 2-3 and is getting closer to an executive order to be rebranded as "Mexico's Team" with each loss.
4. Miami Dolphins (0-4)
Traders have the Dolphins at 42% to be the last team to win a game, the top of the market. In their defense, they've played the Raiders, 49ers, Chiefs and Vikings, a group with a combined record of 15-1, and Miami lost to Minnesota by only five. The schedule excuse expires soon: none of their next five opponents currently has a winning record.
Next 5 games (average difficulty 4.2/10)*:
Up next, Week 5: vs. Cincinnati (2-2), Sun 10/11. Difficulty 5/10
Week 6: bye
Week 7: at New York Jets (1-3), Sun 10/25. Difficulty 2/10
Week 8: vs. New England (2-2), Sun 11/1. Difficulty 5/10
Week 9: vs. Detroit (2-2), Sun 11/8. Difficulty 5/10
Week 10: at Indianapolis (2-2), Sun 11/15. Difficulty 4/10
5. Tennessee Titans (0-4)
Tennessee has lost three straight by six points or fewer, the latest a 24-18 loss to Baltimore in which rookie Carnell Tate caught nine passes for 145 yards. Traders have the Titans at 39% to be the last team to win. Houston visits on Sunday, so the Titans get a home game against a team that hasn't won yet either. Somebody will leave that stadium with a victory they can't explain.
Next 5 games (average difficulty 4.6/10)*:
Up next, Week 5: vs. Houston (0-4), Sun 10/11. Difficulty 2/10
Week 6: at Indianapolis (2-2), Sun 10/18. Difficulty 4/10
Week 7: vs. Cleveland (3-1), Sun 10/25. Difficulty 3/10
Week 8: at Cincinnati (2-2), Sun 11/1. Difficulty 6/10
Week 9: bye
Week 10: vs. Jacksonville (3-1), Sun 11/15. Difficulty 8/10
6. Los Angeles Chargers (0-4)
Los Angeles lost 30-23 in Seattle last Sunday and has been outscored 106-67 through four games. Traders have the Chargers at 24% to be the last team to win a game. Week 6 sends them to Kansas City where a winning offensive game plan from Mike McDaniel does not seem likely on the spectrum of possibilities.
Next 5 games (average difficulty 6.6/10)*:
Up next, Week 5: vs. Denver (2-2), Sun 10/11. Difficulty 5/10
Week 6: at Kansas City (4-0), Sun 10/18. Difficulty 10/10
Week 7: bye
Week 8: at Los Angeles Rams (2-2), Sun 11/1. Difficulty 8/10
Week 9: vs. Houston (0-4), Sun 11/8. Difficulty 2/10
Week 10: at Baltimore (3-1), Mon 11/16. Difficulty 8/10
7. Houston Texans (0-4)
Houston has lost its last two games in the final minute: 19-17 at Indianapolis on a 53-yard field goal with 16 seconds left, then 34-30 to Dallas on a Dak Prescott touchdown pass with 40 seconds left. C.J. Stroud's last Hail Mary landed in nobody's hands. Sunday they visit Tennessee, a team with its own talent for losing close ones. Somebody finally gets to be on the right end of one.
Next 5 games (average difficulty 3.6/10)*:
Up next, Week 5: at Tennessee (0-4), Sun 10/11. Difficulty 1/10
Week 6: at Jacksonville (3-1), at Wembley Stadium in London, Sun 10/18, 9:30 a.m. ET. Difficulty 9/10
Week 7: vs. New York Giants (3-1), Sun 10/25. Difficulty 3/10
Week 8: bye
Week 9: at Los Angeles Chargers (0-4), Sun 11/8. Difficulty 1/10
Week 10: at Cleveland (3-1), Sun 11/15. Difficulty 4/10
*How we rate the schedule: difficulty is the opponent's Kalshi Power Score divided by 10, nudged half a point up on the road and down at home, from 1 (a soft landing) to 10 (the hardest game on the board). It rates the opponent and the venue and doesn't forecast the result.
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