This column is commentary on Kalshi market prices, not investment advice. Trading involves risk, and so does playing quarterback behind the Chargers offensive line.

Trust issues are a problem for relationships of all types, and that does not exclude the relationship between traders and NFL teams. The standings say one thing, the traders say another, and neither side is willing to apologize first.

Then there are the other teams that wish they had trust issues. Instead, they simply have all kinds of issues, and everybody knows you can't trust them. This week's column is about those two kinds of teams.

For trust issues, let's start with the Giants. They are 3-1-1, and traders only have them at 50% against a Saints team that has one win. That's a team you think will let you crash to the ground in a trust fall. Jacksonville is 4-1 and is only 56% against a 1-4 Texans team in London. Faith in Jacksonville Jesus is waning. Three more teams have their own disputes with the market, and we'll get to them one by one.

Then there are the teams with all kinds of issues: the Saints, Titans, Cardinals, Chargers, and of course the Dolphins, who are 0-5 and leading the race to the bottom. The sweepstakes formerly named after Arch Manning is now being rebranded around Jeremiah Smith, and Miami is in the lead.

(For the latest odds, visit Kalshi's NFL hub and Power Rankings.)

^{See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.}

Sunday, Oct. 18, 1:00 p.m. ET

A team that is 3-1-1 should have believers. Then you remember the quarterback is Jameis Winston who said after a two-interception win over Arizona that he had "got people talking about the Jameis Winston experience again." They're talking, but believe us Jameis, you don't want to hear what they're saying. Traders have the Giants at only 50% against a Saints team with one win. That's not skepticism. That's "experience."

Sunday, Oct. 18, 9:30 a.m. ET. International game: Wembley Stadium, London. Neutral site.

Jacksonville is 4-1, and they're playing back-to-back games in London, which should be an advantage over a team flying in. Yet, traders have them at only 56% against a Texans team with one win. It seems that despite what Trevor 3:16 says, faith in Jacksonville Jesus is diminishing in this wicked world.

Sunday, Oct. 18, 1:00 p.m. ET

A team with Caleb Williams at quarterback has trust issues? No one is surprised by that. The Bears are 3-2, and traders have them at only 50% against a 2-3 Falcons team. Last week backup Tyson Bagent threw two interceptions against Green Bay and got replaced by Case Keenum, who didn't look much better in a 31-7 loss. Williams is reportedly trending in the right direction to play. Traders are trending toward a coin flip.

Sunday, Oct. 18, 1:00 p.m. ET

Traders have the Panthers at 61% on the road, and nobody should mistake that for trust. Jalen Hurts is out, Tanner McKee is expected to start, and the Eagles have lost three straight, the last one on a late field goal in London. Carolina is 2-2 and coming off a bye. Traders don't believe in the Panthers so much as they believe less in whatever is happening in Philadelphia.

Sunday, Oct. 18, 8:20 p.m. ET (Sunday Night Football)

Green Bay is 3-2 and playing at home, and traders still have the Packers at only 51% against a Cowboys team that just lost to a Buccaneers team starting a backup quarterback. There is a reason for the caution. Dallas has alternated losses and wins through its first five games, and the last one was a loss. Perhaps traders aren't doubting the Packers. Maybe they're trusting the pattern?

Sunday, Oct. 18, 1:00 p.m. ET. Same game as the Giants entry above.

The Saints are 1-4 and have lost three straight at home. Last week Tyler Shough threw for 96 yards and two interceptions in a 23-13 loss to Minnesota. Traders still have New Orleans at 50% against the "trust issues" Giants proving that sometimes in life you can have different issues with the exact same expectation.

Sunday, Oct. 18, 1:00 p.m. ET

Asked after the Texans game whether he was getting used to losing, Cam Ward said, "No, I'm not a loser." This was after a game when he led the 0-5 Titans to three points. Ward is 3-19 as a starter, and traders have Tennessee at 25% in Indianapolis. He may have convinced himself he's not a loser, but he's going to have a hard time convincing anyone else.

Sunday, Oct. 18, 4:05 p.m. ET

The Cardinals led Detroit 7-0 after one quarter last week. Then Detroit scored 24 straight points and won 45-21, dropping Arizona to 1-4. Traders have the Cardinals at 13% against the Rams, the lowest price on the board this week. Even so, they're priced ahead of the 0-5 Chargers, who they beat, in the race to pick first. So far it's the only lead they haven't blown.

Sunday, Oct. 18, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Chargers made the playoffs last year. This year they're 0-5, and traders have them at 22% at Kansas City. They led Denver 17-10 in the fourth quarter and lost 23-17, and Jim Harbaugh said of his fourth-and-1 call, "It was the wrong decision." Asked what message he had for his team, he said, "I don't know what that message is." Now THAT'S a team with issues!

Epilogue

In closing, we'd like to check in on the race to #1 in the NFL Draft.

Miami is on a bye, and the Dolphins are still in the lead. Traders have them at 37% to make the first overall pick, ahead of Tennessee at 27%, Arizona at 8% and the Chargers at 3%. It's a race where wins hurt you, and a bye is the one week Miami can't accidentally win.

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