NFL Week 7: Contenders, pretenders and offenders

This column is commentary on Kalshi market prices, not investment advice. Trading involves risk, and apparently so does hiring Mike McDaniel as your OC.

Every outlet in America does Contenders and Pretenders. It is the cheapest column in sports media, and we are happy to take our turn at it.

But the league has a third group nobody builds a segment around, so this week we're adding a bucket for the teams that aren't pretending anything. Meet the Offenders. They deserve a voice too.

Here's how this works. Contenders get their NFL Championship odds and their conference odds, because they are the ones playing for the real prize. Pretenders get their division odds, because a division title is the best they can hope for. And the Offenders get a market of their own: worst record in the NFL. Yes, that is a real market. Yes, it is trading right now, and yes, somebody is winning it.

Traders set the numbers. We only supply the adjectives, and some of them are unkind. Sixteen teams made the cut. The other sixteen are waiting to be judged, and don't worry, they will be. It's only Week 7.

(For the latest odds, visit Kalshi's NFL hub and Power Rankings.)

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.}

Teams traders have priced for a title run.

Five teams are priced like they're going all the way this year. Traders have the 49ers, Chiefs, Bills, Bears and Vikings at roughly half of the NFL Champion market between them.

San Francisco is 6-0 after holding off Washington 23-17 on Monday and losing Mike Evans to an Achilles injury in the process. Traders have the 49ers at 17% for the title and 27% for the NFC, the top price in both. The injury report grows every week. Yet, inexplicably, so does the win total.

Kansas City is 5-0 with the 16th-ranked scoring offense and the second-stingiest defense, and so of course the narrative is that Patrick Mahomes is back. Last Sunday's 22-6 over the 0-6 Chargers was a defensive clinic. Traders have the Chiefs at 11% for the title and 17% for the AFC, four points behind Buffalo. The Chiefs are 5-0 and, for better or worse, appear to be back as a perennial NFL championship contender.

Buffalo is 5-1 and off this week after a 33-30 escape in Las Vegas, where Kirk Cousins threw for 313 yards against a defense that had ranked bottom five in points and yards allowed. Traders have the Bills at 21% to win the AFC, the top price in the conference, and 11% for the title. As usual, Buffalo's best defense is Josh Allen's offense.

Minnesota is 5-0 with the league's stingiest scoring defense, so Kyler Murray 2.0 looks like a real thing. Traders have the Vikings at 5% for the title and 12% for the NFC. We've seen Minnesota have hot starts before only to fade away when the games really count, but perhaps 2026 will be the year they change that narrative.

Chicago got blown out 31-7 at Green Bay with Caleb Williams out, then beat Atlanta and New England when he returned. No team has climbed further on Kalshi's board this week, from 13th to 6th. Traders have the Bears at 7% for the title and 13% for the NFC. It seems that Ben Johnson's offense is easier to run with a competent quarterback.

Teams where the record, the price and the reputation don't align.

Six teams below have a case, a record, or a reputation, and none has the market's full faith. Traders have none of them above 6% to win it all, so we're checking the one place pretending gets tested: division odds.

Dallas scored 30 or more three weeks running, then got held to 16 or fewer twice, and now sits at 2-4 after a 23-13 loss at Green Bay. Traders have the Cowboys at 45% to win the NFC East so they can hang their ten-gallon hat on that, but don't expect Jerry Jones to throw a parade for an NFC East title.

The Giants lead the NFC East at 3-2-1 despite a 34-27 loss to New Orleans, and their quarterback is now J.J. McCarthy, acquired three weeks ago. Traders have New York at 28% to win the division, 17 points behind a Dallas team that is 2-4. Not exactly a glowing endorsement of J.J.'s abilities.

Cleveland leads the AFC North at 4-2 after a 13-10 win over Baltimore, with the defense doing the work for three quarters and Deshaun Watson handling the fourth. Traders have the Browns at 9% to win the division, the lowest price of the four teams in it. A first-place team priced like a last-place team. That's about the most Cleveland Browns thing ever.

Traders opened the season with the Rams at the top of the NFL championship market. Six games later they are 2-4, having lost 18-16 at home to an Arizona team on a four-game skid, and Myles Garrett, the star they acquired in a blockbuster trade, was hurt in Week 1. Traders have the Rams at 8% to win the NFC West, ahead of exactly one team, the one that just beat them.

The defending champions are 3-3. Sam Darnold has thrown seven interceptions despite missing most of the first two games, and the offense managed 14 points in a 17-14 overtime loss at Denver. Traders have the Seahawks at 12% to win the NFC West, four points ahead of the Rams and 68 behind the 49ers. The days of nirvana in Seattle didn't last long this time around.

Denver is 4-2 after beating the defending champions in overtime, but if you watched it you'll know it was a game in which Bo Nix threw for 107 yards and Ryan Fitzpatrick used the entire broadcast to question whether he wanted to throw at all. Traders have the Broncos at 29% to win the AFC West, 39 points behind the Chiefs. The 4-2 record looks good on paper, but terrible on film.

Teams where the only hope remaining is a top draft pick next year.

No NFL championship price, no real division race. Offenders get a market of their own: worst record in the NFL. Five teams below, with traders placing faith in their ability to keep losing. Here's the board, and one team is running away with it.

Miami is 0-5 with 70 points scored, the fewest in the league, and the bye week was the best result of its season. Traders have the Dolphins at 53% to finish with the NFL's worst record, more than the next three teams combined, making them the poster child of the offenders list.

Tennessee finally won, 26-20 over Indianapolis, with Cam Ward completing half his passes for 102 yards (wow!). It was Robert Saleh's first win as Titans coach. Traders have the Titans at 15% to finish with the worst record, second only to Miami. This is not a good team.

The Chargers followed two straight 11-win seasons with an 0-6 start, including a 22-6 loss at Kansas City that featured 73 rushing yards on 22 carries. Jim Harbaugh says changes are coming during the bye. Traders have the Chargers at 12% to finish with the worst record. The main question is this: what will come first, a win or Mike McDaniel getting canned?

Philadelphia has lost four straight, the latest 25-14 to Carolina, with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve and a fourth-string running back on the field. The Eagles opened the season priced like a playoff team, and traders now have them at 2% to finish with the worst record, mostly because two early wins are doing all the work. Rumors are actively circulating around Sirianni and fans are out for blood.

Indianapolis led winless Tennessee 13-0 at halftime and lost 26-20, with Daniel Jones throwing two interceptions in scoring position. Last year's 8-2 start feels like a million years ago in Indy. Next up is the 5-0 Vikings. Traders have the Colts at less than 1% to finish with the worst record, so somewhere somebody still believes, we're just not sure why.

That's sixteen teams that contend, pretend or offend. The other sixteen get this paragraph and a link to their game this week until we know who they are. The Ravens are waiting on Lamar Jackson's ankle before they host the Bengals, who are fresh off a bye. The Jaguars lost in London and have the week off, and the Patriots lost in Chicago on Thursday. The Packers and Lions share a game and a problem: Green Bay ran 26 times for 57 yards, and Detroit scores 32.8 points a game and gives up almost 30. The Panthers are floating along, and the Buccaneers are waiting on Baker Mayfield's thumb. The 4-2 Steelers and the 2-4 Saints meet in Paris, so hopefully they packed their riot gear. The Texans started 0-4 and have won two straight, the Raiders started 3-0 and haven't won since, and the Jets and Falcons are both 2-4. The Commanders tied the Giants after overtime expired, and the Cardinals beat the Rams.

Oh, and every price in this column will look different by Tuesday.

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