This column is commentary on Kalshi market prices, not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and so does expecting the Chargers to win a game this year, or Ken Paxton to win Texas.
In Week 8, the Chicago Bears went to Seattle and beat the defending champion Seahawks 34-17. The Detroit Lions handed the Minnesota Vikings their first loss of the season. And the Baltimore Ravens lost Lamar Jackson on the first drive in Buffalo, lost the game 36-10, then lost 33-10 to Jacksonville on Thursday night with an undrafted rookie at quarterback.
Meanwhile, last Tuesday, Texas elected a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1988, and Mississippi probably (votes are still being counted) elected a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1982.
It was that kind of week.
With all that is going on in the world, we thought we'd check in on the Kalshi market: Who will be TIME's Person of the Year?
TIME has handed out the title since 1927. Presidents and popes have won it. In 2006, it went to "You."
This year, traders have New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani at 23%, the highest price on the board.
Meanwhile, in the NFL championship market, the top two teams in football are at 13%.
That's right. Not one NFL team has a better chance of winning it all than the socialist mayor of New York has of making the cover of TIME magazine.
(For the latest odds, visit Kalshi's NFL hub.)
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
Find your match
The Person of the Year market has more than 50 names on it, priced from 23% all the way down to less than 1%. That's enough to give most NFL teams a dance partner.
So we did. Each team is paired with a candidate at or near its championship price, at least until we ran out of candidates.
Yes, TIME makes its choice in December and football crowns its champion in February. We realize these are different events. That's never stopped us before.
Let's meet the couples.
Double digits: The respectable contenders
San Francisco 49ers (13%) and Mark Carney (15%)
The 49ers sit atop the championship market at 13%, tied with Buffalo. Canada's prime minister is two points ahead at 15%.
Before politics, Carney ran two central banks. The 49ers are named after men who went to California looking for gold.
If either market resolves Yes, traders will feel like they have struck gold.
Buffalo Bills (13%) and James Talarico (17%)
The Bills are 6-1 and tied for the top of the board. Talarico is second on his.
On Tuesday, Talarico became the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas since 1988. His party hadn't won a statewide race there since 1994, the same year the Bills lost their fourth straight championship game.
One of those droughts ended this week. Traders have the other at 13%.
Chicago Bears (12%) and Pope Leo XIV (12%)
The Bears beat the champs by 17 on Monday night and climbed more than any team in the market this week.
The Pope is from Chicago and roots for the White Sox. Last year, JD Vance gave him a Bears jersey with his name on the back.
Traders price them both at 12%. Bears fans will take all the help they can get from upstairs.
Jacksonville Jaguars (10%) and Annie Andrews (9%)
The Jaguars are 6-2 after beating Baltimore 33-10 on Thursday.
Andrews is a pediatrician who had never held office. On Tuesday, she became the first woman elected to the Senate from South Carolina and the first Democrat to win a Senate race there since 1998.
Jacksonville won by 23. Andrews broke a 28-year streak. She had the tougher road game.
Single digits: Still in the conversation
Kansas City Chiefs (8%) and Adam Hamilton (7%)
Hamilton is the pastor of the largest United Methodist church in the country. On Tuesday, he became the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932.
The Chiefs are 5-2 but dropped two points in the championship market this week.
Hamilton got Kansas Democrats to believe again. Chiefs fans are somehow losing faith at 5-2.
Los Angeles Rams (6%) and Jon Ossoff (7%)
The Rams are 4-4 and headed to Washington on Sunday. Ossoff just won another six years there.
Ossoff is a point ahead. Only one of them is hoping to leave Washington on Monday.
Seattle Seahawks (5%) and Bad Bunny (7%)
Last February, Seattle beat New England 29-13 in the championship game. Bad Bunny headlined the halftime show.
Nine months later, the halftime act is two points ahead of the champions.
New England Patriots (4%) and Donald Trump (6%)
The Patriots lost the Bad Bunny championship game. The president didn't enjoy the halftime show either, calling it "one of the worst EVER."
Trump has been named Person of the Year twice. Traders have him at 6%, one point behind Bad Bunny, and when he finds out that fact, we're all in for a very colorful Truth Social post.
Detroit Lions (5%) and Christina Koch (4%)
The Lions beat the last unbeaten team in the league on Sunday, 19-15.
Koch was born in Grand Rapids, Michigan. In April, she flew around the moon on Artemis II.
Michigan has now sent a woman around the moon before it sent the Lions to a championship game.
Denver Broncos (5%) and Reid Wiseman (5%)
The Broncos are 6-2 and play a mile above sea level in a state that legalized marijuana. Wiseman commanded Artemis II, the first crewed trip around the moon in more than 50 years.
Both are at 5%. One of them has been higher.
Cincinnati Bengals (4%) and Victor Glover (4%)
Joe Burrow threw five touchdowns and three interceptions in the Bengals' overtime win last Sunday. Victor Glover piloted a spacecraft around the moon in April.
Both made it home. Only one gave the other side three chances to take over.
Minnesota Vikings (4%) and Elon Musk (4%)
The Vikings were undefeated until Sunday, when they lost 19-15 in Detroit.
Elon Musk has spent years trying to get to Mars. The Vikings are still trying to get past Detroit.
Long shots: Technically possible
Green Bay Packers (3%) and Bernie Sanders (3%)
The Packers are the only team in the league owned by their fans.
Sanders has spent his whole career arguing that things should be owned by the people.
They're both at 3%. The market has yet to go for public ownership.
New York Giants (2%) and Hakeem Jeffries (2%)
The Giants are 4-2-1. On Tuesday, Jeffries' party won the House.
One New Yorker knows how to finish. The other has a tie on its record.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2%) and Jerome Powell (2%)
The Steelers are 6-2 with 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers in his 22nd NFL season. Powell's term as Fed chair ended in May, but he stayed on as a governor anyway.
At some point, somebody is going to have to change the locks on both of these guys.
Houston Texans (2%) and Christopher Nolan (2%)
The Texans are 2-5. Nolan made "Interstellar," a movie about NASA sending people through a wormhole to find a planet worth living on.
Houston fans can relate.
Dallas Cowboys (2%) and Pete Hegseth (2%)
The Cowboys are 3-5. Hegseth runs a department that was renamed the Department of War.
Jerry Jones has been fighting a losing battle for 30 years.
Less than 1%: Participation trophies
Fifteen NFL teams are priced below 1% to win the championship.
For perspective, traders give the White House chief of staff a 1% chance at Person of the Year.
Arizona Cardinals and Susie Wiles (1%)
The Arizona Cardinals (less than 1%) are 3-5.
The White House chief of staff is the daughter of Pat Summerall, who played five seasons for the Chicago Cardinals before he became the voice of the NFL.
The franchise has moved twice since then. Its championship odds never followed.
Tennessee Titans and Chris Wright (1%)
The Tennessee Titans (less than 1%) are 1-7. Before he was Energy Secretary, Wright ran an oil and gas company.
The Titans used to be the Houston Oilers. They left the oil in Texas, and the wins went with it.
New York Jets and Jared Kushner (1%)
Kushner made his name in New Jersey real estate. The New York Jets (less than 1%) play in New Jersey too.
The difference is that Kushner has closed a deal.
Miami Dolphins and Steve Witkoff (1%)
Witkoff made his fortune in real estate. The Miami Dolphins (less than 1%) are 1-6, have fired their coach and GM and are carrying a record dead-cap hit.
Even a developer knows when to let the bank take it.
The rest of the floor
The Baltimore Ravens (less than 1%) fell five points this week, the most in the league. Lamar Jackson is out with a thumb injury and his backup is done for the year. Reid Wiseman is from Baltimore. He went around the moon in April, and the Ravens fell off the board in November.
The Las Vegas Raiders (less than 1%) are 4-4. Alysa Liu, the Olympic champion from Oakland, is at 2%. Oakland has a gold medalist now. It doesn't need the Raiders.
The Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Commanders (all less than 1%) join them. There's no meaningful distinction among them anymore. That's convenient, because we're running out of people to compare them to.
Los Angeles Chargers and Andy Burnham (less than 1%)
Burnham became Britain's prime minister in July. The Los Angeles Chargers (less than 1%) are 0-7.
A man who runs an entire country is priced the same as a team that hasn't won a game.
Then there's Mike McDaniel. The Dolphins fired him in January and the Chargers hired him to run their offense. Both of his teams are now in this section.
McDaniel has managed to get two NFL teams into the same championship conversation this year.
Unfortunately, it's this part of the conversation.
The full card
NFL team | Championship price | Person of the Year match | POTY price |
|---|---|---|---|
49ers | 13% | Mark Carney | 15% |
Bills | 13% | James Talarico | 17% |
Bears | 12% | Pope Leo XIV | 12% |
Jaguars | 10% | Annie Andrews | 9% |
Chiefs | 8% | Adam Hamilton | 7% |
Rams | 6% | Jon Ossoff | 7% |
Seahawks | 5% | Bad Bunny | 7% |
Bengals | 4% | Victor Glover | 4% |
Broncos | 5% | Reid Wiseman | 5% |
Lions | 5% | Christina Koch | 4% |
Vikings | 4% | Elon Musk | 4% |
Patriots | 4% | Donald Trump | 6% |
Packers | 3% | Bernie Sanders | 3% |
Cowboys | 2% | Pete Hegseth | 2% |
Texans | 2% | Christopher Nolan | 2% |
Giants | 2% | Hakeem Jeffries | 2% |
Steelers | 2% | Jerome Powell | 2% |
Cardinals | Less than 1% | Susie Wiles | 1% |
Titans | Less than 1% | Chris Wright | 1% |
Jets | Less than 1% | Jared Kushner | 1% |
Dolphins | Less than 1% | Steve Witkoff | 1% |
Chargers | Less than 1% | Andy Burnham | Less than 1% |
Ravens | Less than 1% | None | |
Raiders | Less than 1% | None | |
Falcons | Less than 1% | None | |
Panthers | Less than 1% | None | |
Browns | Less than 1% | None | |
Colts | Less than 1% | None | |
Saints | Less than 1% | None | |
Eagles | Less than 1% | None | |
Buccaneers | Less than 1% | None | |
Commanders | Less than 1% | None |
TIME will make its choice in about a month. The NFL needs another three.
Somebody on this list is going to be on a magazine cover. Somebody else is going to be holding a trophy.
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the National Football League.
