Today, state primary elections are taking place all across the nation, with media attention focusing mainly on Texas. But for Democrats, today’s race in North Carolina’s 4th congressional district is of particular importance.
Kalshi traders are currently pricing Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam as the favorite in her race against incumbent Congresswoman Valerie Foushee.
NC-04, which redrew its borders last October, contains cities such as Durham, Hillsborough, and Chapel Hill.
With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at what the markets are forecasting.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
NC-04 Democratic nomination
As mentioned above, Commissioner Allam currently shows a 74% chance, per Kalshi traders, to win the NC-04 Democratic nomination. An alumna of nearby North Carolina State University, she has presided over Durham County since December 2020. Keep in mind, Durham is North Carolina’s fifth-most populous county.
Following Allam, incumbent Congresswoman Foushee hopes to retain her seat. She has served in this role for just over two years, and also had a brief stint in the North Carolina House of Representatives.
Late Monday, Kalshi’s traders priced Foushee at 38¢, but that number has since dropped to 31¢.
Mary Patterson is also running for the NC-04 congressional seat. However, Patterson greatly trails Allam and Foushee in both endorsements and fundraising. Incidentally, Kalshi is giving Patterson a less than 1% likelihood to win Tuesday’s primary election.
It’s worth mentioning that this race is a rematch from 2022 when Foushee defeated Allam, 46% to 37%.
Allam reached as high as 97¢ on Kalshi, a level that held until January 16. Subsequently, she has been the NC-04 market favorite since February 20. Meanwhile, Foushee saw her peak pricing of 76¢ back on January 8.
Which party will win the House race for NC-04?
The Democratic race for NC-04 will eventually lead to November’s midterm elections, which have numerous “battleground” districts up for grabs. The Democrats are hoping to flip and retain as many congressional seats as possible, and Kalshi’s traders have been extremely bullish on the Dems holding NC-04.
Kalshi is giving the Democrats a 94% chance of keeping the newly redrawn NC-04 under party control. For reference, a Republican has not represented North Carolina’s 4th congressional district since 1997. Much of that is due to David Price (D – Chapel Hill) occupying the seat for 26 years.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Who will be the Democratic nominee for North Carolina’s 4th district?
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.