The critically acclaimed documentary You Can See Everything is generating Oscar buzz, with Kalshi traders giving it a 16% chance of winning Best Picture.
Kalshi's Best Picture Oscar market shows The Odyssey at 47%, followed by The Black Ball at 19% and You Can See Everything at 16%.
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What’s it about?
You Can See Everything follows filmmakers Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim as they attempt to understand Elizabeth Holmes, the disgraced Theranos founder sentenced to more than 11 years in prison for defrauding investors.
The documentary begins with Fielder spending time with Holmes and her family in the weeks before her imprisonment, then follows the filmmakers' efforts to understand her motivations over several years.
Could it win Best Picture?
Some critics and reporters have mentioned that the film could become the first documentary to receive an Academy Award nomination for Best Picture.
Consequence’s Liz Shannon Miller reported that the film received $15 million this past weekend, setting “box office records with the largest debut for a movie opening on less than 1,000 screens since 2006’s Borat. It also had the largest grossing opening weekend for a documentary since Michael Moore’s 2004 blockbuster Fahrenheit 9/11.”
You Can See Everything’s critical and financial success make it a real contender for the next Oscars, including for a Best Picture nod. However, the film faces obstacles in securing an Oscar nomination, particularly in the Best Documentary Feature category.
“To get there, YCSE would first have to be nominated by the roughly 700 members of the Academy’s documentary branch,” Vulture’s Nate Jones wrote. “That’s a taller order than it sounds, because the doc brand is not like other branches. No other branch takes such delight in going its own way, regularly giving a cold shoulder to titles the rest of the industry adores. No other branch’s members prioritize their role as combatants in an ideological battle – in this case, over what a documentary should be.”
Other awards analysts, including Deadline Hollywood’s Pete Hammond believe the film could receive nominations beyond Best Documentary Feature. Hammond also identified directing, cinematography, original score, and editing as potential awards categories for the film.
“In addition to Best Picture – which oddly may be an even more realistic goal than Documentary Feature, which has drifted more international in scope recently – You Can See Everything deserves strong consideration for Best Directing, David Bolen’s exceptional cinematography, Ari Balouzian’s haunting music and Adam Locke-Norton’s editing, the latter particularly impressive since he had 700 (!) hours of footage to shape into a 2-hour and 54-minute movie.”
The Los Angeles Times’ Glenn Whipp noted that when it comes time for the Oscar judges to make their picks for nominations next year, Fielder and Oppenheim’s film will be hard to ignore.
“The movie leaves you with many questions – about Holmes, about the slippery nature of truth and about the objectivity of documentary filmmaking itself,” Whipp wrote.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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