The Packers visit the Buccaneers on Sunday, Oct. 4, at 1 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium, where undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will make the first NFL start of his career, and the first by an undrafted rookie quarterback in Buccaneers history, behind an offensive line that has allowed sacks on 13.1% of pass attempts, the highest rate in the league. Kalshi traders have the Packers at 60% to win against a 0-3 Tampa Bay team now on its second quarterback in four weeks.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
Who is favored to win the Packers vs. Buccaneers Week 4 game?
The Packers are 1-2 after a 35-14 home loss to Atlanta in Week 3, and Jordan Love has 844 passing yards, but Green Bay ranks last in the league in rushing at 48.7 yards per game. As of this writing, guard Aaron Banks (knee/toe), center/guard Jacob Monk (quad) and defensive tackles Warren Brinson (calf/groin) and Anthony Campbell (ankle) are out, while Jager Burton (groin) and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (shoulder/concussion) are questionable.
The Buccaneers are 0-3 for the first time since 2014 after losses to Cincinnati, Cleveland and Minnesota. Mayfield dislocated his right thumb in the 23-16 loss to the Vikings and is expected to miss at least three games. Daniels, an undrafted rookie out of Kansas, will be the first undrafted rookie quarterback to start a regular season game in franchise history after going 0 for 3 in relief last week. As of this writing, Mayfield, tight end Ko Kieft (elbow), outside linebacker Rueben Bain Jr. (groin/shoulder) and cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad) are out, and wide receiver Chris Godwin (ankle) is questionable.
Kalshi power rankings
The Packers enter as the No. 23 team in the league with a Power Score of 26.4 and a 30% playoff qualification price, while the Buccaneers rank 28th with a Power Score of 17.6 and a 15% playoff price, a five-spot gap heading into Tampa. See the full 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Packers at 60% to win and the Buccaneers at 40%. Green Bay is favored on the road with Tampa Bay changing quarterbacks.
What is the point spread for Packers vs. Buccaneers in Week 4?
Kalshi traders have the Packers winning by more than 3.5 points at 43% as of this writing.
What is the projected point total?
Kalshi traders have the over on 37.5 total points at 54% as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline in the Packers vs. Buccaneers Week 4 game?
Daniels' first start comes behind an offensive line that has allowed sacks on 13.1% of pass attempts, the highest rate in the league. He faces a Green Bay defense that ranks 11th in sack rate, with outside linebacker Lukas Van Ness at 2.5 sacks. Tampa Bay's defense is stronger, ranking sixth in yards allowed and second against the run, which gives the Buccaneers a path to keep the game low-scoring.
What are the Packers' and Buccaneers' expectations for the 2026 season?
Green Bay Packers: The Packers are trying to bounce back from a late-season collapse in 2025 with a new defensive coordinator and the league's worst rushing offense. Kalshi traders have Green Bay at 30% to make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay entered the season with playoff hopes after extending Mayfield through 2029 and sits one game behind in the NFC South despite the 0-3 start. Kalshi traders have the Buccaneers at 15% to make the playoffs.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have the Packers at 60% to win, favoring the better-ranked team against a Buccaneers side starting an undrafted rookie quarterback. Whether Daniels can handle Green Bay's pass rush behind a leaky line is the swing factor. Kalshi's prices for Packers vs. Buccaneers will keep moving as kickoff approaches.
What are the score predictions for Packers vs. Buccaneers? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the over on 37.5 total points at 54%.
What is the spread for Packers vs. Buccaneers? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Packers winning by more than 3.5 points at 43%.
Who is favored to win, Packers or Buccaneers? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Packers at 60% to win.
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