The last time the Patriots and Bills met, New England was 14-3 and headed to the Super Bowl. Now Drake Maye has six interceptions and no answers, and Buffalo is 3-0 with the league's best offense waiting in Orchard Park. Kalshi traders price the Bills at 74% to win Sunday at Highmark Stadium.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
Who is favored to win the Patriots vs. Bills Week 4 game?
New England is 1-2 after a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville, and Drake Maye has one passing touchdown and six interceptions through three starts. As of this writing, cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder), defensive tackle Christian Barmore (shoulder) and safety Brenden Schooler (back) are out, with tackle Morgan Moses (foot), linebacker Dre'Mont Jones (shoulder) and safety Craig Woodson (shoulder) among seven players listed as questionable.
Buffalo is 3-0 with the league's top scoring offense, though Josh Allen turned the ball over three times in last week's 24-16 win over the Chargers. As of this writing, defensive lineman T.J. Sanders (illness) is doubtful, with running back Ray Davis (hamstring) and cornerback Christian Benford (toe) questionable.
Kalshi power rankings
The Bills enter as the No. 1 team in the league with a Power Score of 92.1 and a 93% playoff qualification price, while the Patriots rank 17th with a Power Score of 38.0 and a 43% playoff price, a 16-spot gap heading into the division matchup. New England has dropped seven spots over the past week, the biggest fall on the board. See the full 2026 NFL market-implied power rankings.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Bills at 74% to win and the Patriots at 26%, a clear edge for Buffalo at home.
What is the point spread for Patriots vs. Bills in Week 4?
Kalshi traders have the Bills winning by more than 6.5 points at 52% as of this writing.
What is the projected point total?
Kalshi traders have the over on 48.5 total points at 54% as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline in the Patriots vs. Bills Week 4 game?
Maye, the MVP runner-up a year ago, ranks last in passer rating among quarterbacks who have started all three games at 58.6. He now faces a Bills pass rush led by Greg Rousseau, who has four sacks through three games, behind a Patriots offensive line that is banged up on the right side. New England is tied for the fewest points in the league, and this is its first trip to Buffalo's new stadium, which opened this season.
What are the Patriots' and Bills' expectations for the 2026 season?
New England Patriots: New England went from last place to the Super Bowl in 2025 and is trying to avoid a hangover after a rough first three weeks. Kalshi traders have the Patriots at 43% to make the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills: Buffalo wants to reclaim the AFC East and get past the divisional round in Brady's first season. Kalshi traders have the Bills at 93% to make the playoffs, the highest price in the league, and 13% to win the championship.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have the Bills at 74% to win, backing the league's top-ranked team against a Patriots offense that has not found its footing. Whether Maye can protect the ball against Buffalo's pass rush is the swing factor. Kalshi's prices for Patriots vs. Bills will keep moving as kickoff approaches.
What are the score predictions for Patriots vs. Bills? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the over on 48.5 total points at 54%.
What is the spread for Patriots vs. Bills? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Bills winning by more than 6.5 points at 52%.
Who is favored to win, Patriots or Bills? As of this writing, Kalshi traders have the Bills at 74% to win.
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