This Sunday, January 18, Portugal voters will head to the polls in a contentious presidential election that will likely require a runoff for the first time since 1986, with none of the five leading candidates poised to receive over 50% of the vote in the first round.
As in other European nations, the right-wing is capitalizing on voter discontent with the mainstream parties to try to return to power for the first time since Portugal overthrew its ultraconservative Estado Novo dictatorship in the Carnation Revolution. Leading the charge is André Ventura, a far-right and anti-establishment leader of the opposition party Chega, which he founded only seven years ago. He has made anti-corruption and anti-immigration the centerpieces of his campaign and narrowly leads the polling average; traders forecast him to receive around 22% of the vote in the first round.
He is virtually tied in polling with António José Seguro from the Socialist Party, who Kalshi traders actually believe has the best chance (55%) of winning the first round of the presidential election, given his rapid rise to the top of the pack in both polling and prediction markets. Seguro has described himself as the vanguard of a "modern and moderate" left that is best positioned to defeat the rising success of populist far-right parties across Europe.
The three other candidates polling in double digits and within striking distance of the leaders include João Cotrim de Figueiredo, a European Parliament member from the pro-business Liberal Initiative party, Luís Marques Mendes, who is from the ruling center-right Social Democratic Party and backed by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, and centrist Navy officer Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who rose to prominence after leading Portugal’s COVID-19 Task Force that led to one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. In some polls, all five candidates are within the margin of error of each other, underscoring just how fragmented and open the presidential field is.
The markets, however, are much more clear in projecting a winner, or rather, a loser. Despite leading in the first round and being very likely to make the runoff, traders only give André Ventura a 6% chance of ultimately winning the presidency, with Socialist António José Seguro the clear frontrunner with a 76% chance. This is because Ventura trails all four other leading contenders in a one-on-one runoff by significant margins, although simply advancing to the runoff would be a symbolic victory for the far-right and cement Ventura’s position as leader of the opposition.
Whatever the outcome of the election, it seems clear that Portuguese voters are increasingly disillusioned with both the traditional center-left and center-right parties, and the next resident of the Palace of Belém has much work to do in uniting the country.
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